The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
  • brainfreeze
    1•2 years ago

    That’s a pretty good spread of years, though. Is that something that they can reduce with more data or technological advances?

  • @[email protected]English
    8•2 years ago

    If the records shattered this year tell us anything, it is that these models are too optimistic. Undoubtedly, this will occur during our lives.

    • @[email protected]English
      1•2 years ago

      Yeah, I know it’s a bit of a meme within the community. But surely scientists should start modelling in ‘faster than expected’ to get more accurate results.

  • @[email protected]English
    9•2 years ago

    Tl;dr, AMOC collapse extremely likely (95% confidence) from 2025-2095. So, within many people’s lifetimes.

    • @[email protected]
      English
      2•2 years ago

      It doesn’t stop overnight. In fact it has noticeably slowed down already. Of course the process becomes quicker when Greenland freshwater runoff becomes massive.