I’m happy to be in the “i told you so” crowd, and I’m surprised that I predicted it would be kamala just being crowned president elect after biden drops after the speech.
What I never imagined was how much support Kamala would get. I thought a change like this, while it would have been better, would be controversial. While I’m upset with some things, like the wishy-washy “hope” platform and the promised things having a poor track record of being achieved by the dems, I’d much rather prefer this to biden, even with her terrible views on genocide and LGBTQ rights (especially trans rights)
Granted, this hope narrative is working wonders for a lot of democrats, and I even felt a little bit of it in my jaded, cold, black anarchist heart. Just the change of candidate alone feels similar to the times when I’d go home after spending a month eating the horrid cafeteria food in college to have a home-cooked meal. But i’m worried that after that brief weekend of good shit, it will go back to the same old bullshit once she’s in office
Yeah I’m deeply worried she’s going to throw queer and especially trans people under the bus, especially since she’s already compromising on things I don’t want her to compromise on, but she’s not worse than the alternative and I think she understands that single issue voters on lgbt issues can’t be pulled from the republicans but can be lost by the democrats.
Even though I am more on the militant side with LGBTQ+ rights, I’m still pretty worried about what’s to come. I don’t expect the government to help me, and I’m building connections of solidarity and support that will keep myself and others safe, regardless of what happens.
But I’m scared of what’s going to happen to trans kids cursed to grow up in a state like Florida or Oklahoma. Left to rot by a party that’s abandoned them once they’ve voted. I’m worried that queers aren’t realizing that we can’t expect reciprocal support from the Dems, especially at the federal level, and they’re not using their energy to build support networks instead of spending time and energy campaigning for them.
What a time to be alive. As it seems now, I was entirely wrong, as was ‘conventional’ political wisdom. May I continue to be wrong. It’s a welcome failure, as far as I’m concerned.
Did you learn anything?
What’s to be learned? What is weak logic about the mainline, presumptive nominee, who is a sitting president, who one way or another was the only human being to beat trump in an election, would become the actual nominee and democratic candidate?
That is not a bad bet, or bad logic, if we are sitting in March or April.
Idk, I asked someone else in this thread that and they had a great answer. They mentioned how the way we predict elections has changed since 2016 (or something) and I thought that was super interesting and worth reflecting on. If I answered your question right now it might be something simple like age or someone with a better understanding of history might mention how the current level of wealth inequality compares to previous moments in history
That said, I’m not sure why this similar comment was seen as more offensive. This is literally something I try to do myself when someone I trust is wrong about something. I might not cancel em or whatever but I’ll try to understand what went wrong or maybe just stop listening to them about certain topics they’re consistently wrong on
Wealth inequality has fuck all to do with a reader’s assessment of election candidacy, especially when the primary source (the candidate) is emphatic about their intent to run.
By all available signal, Biden fully intended to run until after the debate, where the cracks formed, other candidates were discussed, and Harris stepped up.
To suggest otherwise could only be arrived at by wish, or reliance on a more distant, less direct source, which is a worse bet.
Idk, even Nancy Pelosi didn’t accept Biden’s words. So, it’s wild, to me, that an informed citizen would simply accept things the way they’re told they are. Maybe this isn’t about “sources” and more about pundits and narrative-makers/builders - the ones that decide who is “electable”. Not everyone accepted the narrative that Biden wouldn’t step down. Some even had the narrative that he must step down and apparently they were “right” - for lack of a better word (sorry for any poor communication)
That said, you’ve clearly made up your mind and you don’t really seem interested in entertaining this idea, so we really don’t have to keep going
For example, you could note that “only human being to beat Trump in an election” is a really small sample size. It’s equally true to note that so far, Hillary is the only Democrat to lose to Trump in an election. The performance post-switch would indicate Trump is not a uniquely dangerous and persuasive candidate, but that his opposition was uniquely weak so far.
That conventional political wisdom is getting less applicable with every year since the hell-date of 2016?
That’s actually really great! 1000 kudos to you
Why do you think political wisdom wasn’t applicable in 2016 and hasn’t been since?
I think that’s is really one of the most important things we need to try and understand and I don’t think it’s mainly due to the Internet being a factor.
My guess is it’s moreso due to the influence of money on political campaigns, the influence of mega-corporations on the job market, and all the offshoring of jobs in the last few decades. The terrible state of our education system really doesn’t help either
Why do you think political wisdom wasn’t applicable in 2016 and hasn’t been since?
I think that’s is really one of the most important things we need to try and understand and I don’t think it’s mainly due to the Internet being a factor.
The internet, globalism, the collapse of Rhine Capitalism in favor of neoliberalism and reactions against it, the lack of a clear ideological ‘enemy’ to face… it could be any number of things. All I know for sure is that we’re living in ‘interesting times’, and it’ll likely continue to be ‘interesting’ for a while before any new ‘conventional’ wisdom can be made.
It’s a wild time for sure. If I knew senators were going to quote 4chan when discussing policies… Man what a time.
Yeah, unprecedented event after unprecedented event. Still you could’ve been vindicated if anything mildly unfortunate had happened before the DNC. Like if Harris picked a different VP, if Vance was actually in any way adept, etc. And hey, knock on wood, but you could still be right in the end – we probably shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch.
Good on you though for being a good sport about your previous comments. I was on the “drop out” side (not that Biden would drop out, but I thought pretty much anyone else would have a better chance), but at the end of the day I kinda think we’re all talking out of our asses to a certain degree, because political science isn’t actually a science at all.
Yep, I was wearing that clown makeup too. Dems have not impressed me much lately with being able to deliver a coherent and effective message, so I was fully prepared for a shitshow of disarray if/when Biden dropped out.
It was very surprising to me how effectively they were able to leave Trump stumbling just as he seemed to be on the upswing. The utter lack of disorder around it almost feels like Biden was planning to drop out of the race all along, just waiting for the right moment… but that’s probably giving him too much credit.
What clown makeup? Biden was the presumptive nominee. I wasn’t pro Biden, I was pro Democrat in the Whitehouse. Trump in prison.
I still am, though I acknowledge I was wrong about who the nominee was gonna be.
I personally underestimated the support Harris would get. I remember lots of progressives being unhappy with her back in 2020, due to her background as a prosecutor.
Between that and the obvious reasons Republicans would go after her, I figured it would be an uphill battle.
Very happy to have been wrong!
I’m with ya there.
May we continue righting more of PugJesus’ wrongs
exact same
I figured there was a 1% chance of Biden dropping out, but also thought that Kamala would be a better candidate than him, but was also skeptical that Kamala would be able to beat Trump.
So…basically wrong on the first, correct on the second… yet to be determined on the third.
I did not expect the Democrats to actually do anything that would actually help themselves, figuring that they are far too ossified and out of touch.
Currently the Trump and the Republicans seem to stun locked by the ‘they’re just weird’ angle… which is amazing to me in two ways:
One, that after basically 3 decades of spewing lies and hate and insults against their opponents in the form of coordinated talking points to respond to basically every political development, they cannot handle the mildest possible form of this being used against them.
Two, that the Democrats finally actually collectively did something ‘aggressive’ rhetorically. Years and years of ‘taking the high road’ and acting morally superior to their opponents… they finally actually did something (collectively) that makes them not seem like hoity toity cloistered intellectual snobs.
That, and
MikeTim Walz is actually surprisingly relatable and charismatic.*Tim Walz
Derp. Thanks.
Not a failure. These are strange times
Agreed. I really didn’t expect the quick rally. I’m even more impressed with citizens than Kamala’s campaign. It’s restorative.
Right there with you
All the people who said I was helping the orange man by asking for a better candidate can tell me they’re sorry. Yeah right. They’re the same ones telling us to shut up about Gaza.
Feels a wee bit early for the “I told you so” stuff. She’s currently losing in the betting odds.
Edit: it’s good to be wrong
For one thing, it’s an even worse metric than polls. For another:
Interesting, I’ve heard the opposite in terms of betting odds v. traditional polling. Good to know it changed though as Trump was like +5 as recently as like 2 days ago. Thanks for posting.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
2 days ago was probably before the DNC opened, ever day has seemingly been throwing that shit from Back to the Future 3 in the hypetrains engine.
Music to my ears. Thank you for lifting my spirits. We just all gotta vote.
Everyone is happy to be wrong. This isn’t the flex you think it is lol
It’s not a flex. It’s a statement about how much is still lacking.
Maybe you should read your comment again cuz it’s definitely not a “statement about how much is still lacking”.
Yo I don’t think we spoke but I was someone saying Biden would be the nominee. I even said things like it’s unlikely or impossible there will be another D candidate.
I acknowledge I was wrong on that part. I also acknowledge as the season wore on Biden clearly displayed himself as not fit to run, and a replacement was a good idea.
In general I focused and continue to focus on those who say “stay home or vote 3rd party” as that is an issue in the face of project 2025 and other obvious trump stuff.
So my argument wasn’t “omg vote for grandpa Biden he’s the best” it was “let’s keep trump out of the Whitehouse, a Democratic candidate is the only option, and Biden is currently the likely nominee.”
Also, keep talking about Gaza, it’s important.
I had no confidence that the Democrats could coalesce around another candidate, in time for the convention.
I’m honestly flabbergasted
“We need a better candidate” is a different cry altogether.
I still feel they’re taking a huge risk and they could still fail miserably like every other time before, but we have no comparative data for a differential anyway.
I still worry they made the wrong choice but they did so the best way possible, and I hope it works out for them. I still have my fears but I sure hope they’re just that.
I don’t know if I ever talked to YOU about it, but I definitely said a few times that it was too risky to change candidates, even though Biden was polling terribly. I’m very happy to eat my hat now!
Yeah, in the same boat. I thought they needed to stick with him because of advantage incumbents have, and I didn’t think we had time to promote a new candidate. Very happy to be wrong about that! I don’t care about the change, I’m just happy to go with whoever has the best chance at winning
I genuinely didn’t think someone else was positioned to take on the campaigning. I’m glad I was wrong.
Doing an “I told you so” on people who are happy to be wrong is pretty silly.
It needs to be said. If we can’t acknowledge how contradicting narratives were fed to us within the same month, then it shows an alarming lack of cognitive dissonance on our part.
There are people on Lemmy who argued that Biden is not our best bet against Trump; they were told that Biden was the best that the party can do and that there was not enough time to replace Biden. Now, we’re all supposed to move on like that didn’t just happen.
That said, I am pleasantly surprised to see the community admitting the mistake. I assumed this post would be downvoted heavily but the post felt necessary for the reasons above.
that’s why i gave kudos to those people instead last month https://lemmy.world/comment/11376547
the fears were wrong but understandable. if AOC wasn’t sure there was enough support behind Harris you’re allowed to be wrong too.
now there’s great and unified energy behind the democratic party for the first time since Obama. just enjoy it and try your best to keep it up. going for an “i told you so” right now is petty.
Yeah, the “I told you so”s feel like infighting just to fight your own side
i mean there was some infighting at the time, and i participated in it saying he should drop out. other people were saying he shouldn’t. that’s infighting and it makes sense. people were in disagreement about what should be done next.
but now it’s over. there’s pretty much unanimous consensus that it was the right thing to do. now that there’s no disagreement, bringing up the time where there was, just to feel better about yourself is silly and pointless.
now that there’s no disagreement, bringing up the time where there was, just to feel better about yourself is silly and pointless.
Hard disagree.
This is a teachable moment that should be treated as an opportunity for growth.
Everyone who was wrong about the need for Biden to drop out of the race needs to do some introspection so that they don’t repeat the flawed political analyses that led them to support the wrong primary candidate.
that is not at all what this is about
guilty
Go fuck yourself. You act like you knew this was gunna be the case all along. Most of us were fighting the “let’s just have a vote at the DNC” people. And that’s not how it went.
We didn’t want chaos. Choas is far from what we got.
Get off your high horse there, mate.
You act like you knew this was gunna be the case all along.
Since 2016, actually.
In fact, the only thing that surprised me was that Biden actually dropped out. Never would have thought Pelosi would have been able to convince him.
Go fuck yourself.
Right back at ya, bub~
I didn’t know what to think about Biden dropping out but I’m glad it’s taken a turn for the best. It was a bold move and it paid off.
Bold, yeah… In the same way that jumping out of a moving vehicle headed towards a cliff is bold.
Yeah though I’ll say two things in our defense: 1) it was a reasonable stance given the information we had, and 2) we’ve been some of the most proud to accept and admit that we were wrong people I’ve ever seen talking politics on the internet.
I disagree on #1, it only seemed like a reasonable stance because you were not exposed to information that would contradict it and were never trained to analyze political bias so you wouldn’t realize that the avoidance of the topic was significant.
I double-minored in Futures Studies and Political Science during postgrad, and predicted that the Democrat incumbent would have to drop out of the race to give their party a chance all the way back in 2016 when the DNC conspired against Bernie’s campaign. For those of us who know how to read between a propagandist’s lines, this has been an inevitability for a long time.
So you’re saying that if we have a phd in this we would be expected to know better? Pardon me, I only got a bs in something unrelated to political science so when I look at the political situation I attempt to see what is most realistically close to what I want. Seeing as I didn’t see experts coming out of the woodwork on this, and instead saw a party with a tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory considering throwing away an incumbent advantage on a president I’d been surprised on how much I approved of his actions after I’d held my nose for him in 2020, I guess I just think that for yokel voters like me it was a reasonable perspective because the only arguments I saw were basically “he’s too old and he’s fucked”. Also it sure seemed unlikely to happen and a bit late to demand it.
So you’re saying that if we have a phd in this we would be expected to know better?
Nah, I’m saying that Americans aren’t taught about politics, they’re lucky if they can make it through high school with a basic understanding of how the state is arranged.
A real education system would make American politics much less predictable, because it would empower Americans to shape their own future rather than merely being subject to corporate whims.
This just makes me want to play Balatro
Buffalo bagels
Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. The election isn’t over. This nations racism, sexism, and sheer stupidity might be too much to overcome.
And just because she wins doesn’t mean it goes away either.
And just because she wins doesn’t mean she wins either.
There are election deniers all over the country in important places and they’re going to act up after the election refusing to certify their election results. SCOTUS could end up rubber stamping a Trump win in a scenario where it’s up to them to solve a legal dispute…
Don’t get cocky, vote!
Get other people to vote.
Yep, I was one of those people, but I’m happy that I was wrong about it.
Still, I imagine they’re pretty happy about being wrong.
You realize they’re the same people who tried to start a national movement for Dems to vote R because Obama beat Hillary, right?
Like. Biden supporters did t just appear overnight. They’re the people who voted R till Bill Clinton in the 90s, and they’re very used to getting what they want, can’t accept when they dont and constantly project
There’s not.many of them, they just never shut up and are the ones currently running the DNC.
Nope, I had no idea. I’m not American. In fact, I don’t even know who you’re referring to as “R.”
But I thought about how I would feel if it was me and I through, yeah, I’d feel pretty silly but I’d also be happy about being wrong.
I just thought it would be fair to them to mention it.
It sounds bad though, whatever it is. That definitely came across.
Gee, thanks for viewing the downfall of our country like a soccer match and voicing your opinion on what we should do I guess.
I mean, there’s practically no way to avoid hearing about your elections, might as well make it slightly more bearable.
They aren’t right, they’re projecting on us. A lot of us are here and thought it was a bad strategic decision before it happened but are happy it went as well as it did
I won’t pretend to know how it would have gone either way. Had it actually not happened in the timeline that it did happen, it could have easily been different. The momentum, the media narratives, the quickness with which the Democrats united behind Harris, all of these things caught most everyone by surprise. I could see any of those things being wildly different had Biden chose to step down much earlier. We don’t like to admit it, but irrational, unknowable elements like “vibe” and “timing” have always played a huge role in elections.
