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I’ve noticed people have been talking less and less about AI lately, particularly online and in the media, and absolutely nobody has been talking about it in real life.
The novelty has well and truly worn off, and most people are sick of hearing about it.
The hype is still percolating, at least among the people I work with and at the companies of people I know. Microsoft pushing Copilot everywhere makes it inescapable to some extent in many environments, there’s people out there who have somehow only vaguely heard of ChatGPT and are now encountering LLMs for the first time at work and starting the hype cycle fresh.
It’s like 3D TVs, for a lot of consumer applications tbh
Oh fuck that’s right, that was a thing.
Goddamn
3D has been a thing every 15 years or so
3D TVs were a commercial fad once and I haven’t seen them in forever.
2016 may have been the end of them
Yes but 3D is always a thing periodically.
I used shutter glasses with two voodoo2 cards…
I used shutter glasses with the sega master system back in 87. They were rad af
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, now we are gonna get the reality of deep fakes; fun times.
Wether we like it or not AI is here to stay, and in 20-30 years, it’ll be as embedded in our lives as computers and smartphones are now.
Right, it did have an AI winter few decades ago. It’s indeed here to stay, it doesn’t many any of the current company marketing it right now will though.
AI as a research field will stay, everything else maybe not.
Is there a “young man yells at clouds meme” here?
“Yes, you’re very clever calling out the hype train. Oooh, what a smart boy you are!” Until the dust settles…
Lemmy sounds like my grandma in 1998, “Pushah. This ‘internet’ is just a fad.'”
The difference is that the Internet is actually useful.
Yeah, the early Internet didn’t require 5 tons of coal be burned just to give you a made up answer to your query. This bubble is Pets.com only it is also murdering the rainforest while still be completely useless.
Estimates for chatgpt usage per query are on the order of 20-50 Wh, which is about the same as playing a demanding game on a gaming pc for a few minutes. Local models are significantly less.
Can you imagine all the troll farms automatically using all this power
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Idiots in this thread keep forgetting there’s a climate crisis and that we won’t be able to live the lives we live now forever 🤷♀️
It’s not that we don’t have a climate crisis. We do, and I’m not an advocate for AI. It’s just…mankind. It’s what I think is going to happen, “wether we like it or not”.
Too much optimism and hype may lead to the premature use of technologies that are not ready for prime time.
— Daron Acemoglu, MIT
Preach!
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Pop pop!
Magnitude!
Argument!
A.I., Assumed Intelligence
More like PISS, a Plagiarized Information Synthesis System
The more you bAI
Argh, after 25 years in tech I am surprised this keeps surprising you.
We’ve crested for sure. AI isn’t going to solve everything. AI stock will fall. Investor pressure to put AI into everything will subside.
The we will start looking at AI as a cost benefit analysis. We will start applying it where it makes sense. Things will get optimised. Real profit and long term change will happen over 5-10 years. And afterwards, the utter magical will seem mundane while everyone is chasing the next hype cycle.
Truth. I would say the actual time scales will be longer, but this is the harsh, soul-crushing reality that will make all the kids and mentally disturbed cultists on r/singularity scream in pain and throw stones at you. They’re literally planning for what they’re going to do once ASI changes the world to a star-trek, post-scarcity civilization… in five years. I wish I was kidding.
I’m far far more concerned about all the people who were deemed non essential so quickly after being “essential” for so long because AI will do so much work slaps employees with 2 weeks severance
I’m right there with you. One of my daughters love drawing and designing clothes and I don’t know what to tell her in terms of the future. Will human designs be more valued? Less valued?
I’m trying to remain positive; when I went into software my parents barely understood that anyone could make a living of that “toy computer”.
But I agree; this one feels different. I’m hoping they all feel different to the older folks (me).
The fact that is is from LA Times shows that it’s still significant though
Hopefully this means the haters will shut up and we can get on with using it for useful stuff
Shitty useless pictures each costing kilowatt hours.
I mean, machine learning and AI does have benefits especially in research in the medical field. The consumer AI products are just stupid though.
It’s help me learn coding, Spanish, and helped me build scripts of which I would never have been able to do by myself or with technical works alone.
If we’re talking specifically about the value I get out of what Gpt is right now, its priceless to me. Like my second, albeit braindead, systems administrator on my shoulder when I need something I don’t want to type out myself. And what ever mistakes it makes is within my abilities to repair on my own without fighting for it.
AI didn’t do that. It stole all the information for free on the internet from people who tried to help others and make money of it.
Have you ever used Google translate or apps that identify bugs/plants/songs? AI is used in products you most likely use every week.
You are also arguing for a closed garden system where companies like reddit and Getty get to dictate who can make models and at what price.
Individual are never getting a dime out of this. In a perfect world, governments would be fighting for copyleft licenses for anything using big data but every law being proposed is meant to create a soft monopoly owned by Microsoft and Google and kill open-source.
I can very much so assure you that chatGPT did all of those things for me.
“PIXAR DIDNT MAKE TOY STORY!! THE CHI ARTISTS DID!!!”
I know coding now to a degree. But when I mess something up I’m not going to post to a random forum somewhere to see if someone feels like looking at my problem, and then when they view the issue someone feels the need to include their non objective solution or answer. I don’t want conversation or to be told “see you CoULD do this yourself If you did this”
Like yea that’s cool…but my building just disconnected from the outside world and 1200 people are now expressing their concern, and me being told to just Google it, when my Juniper flipped a bit isnt going to cut it. And Andy in Montana just locked my post because"this question has been answered before" with no elaboration. And spice works has my exact issue but is closed because: problem solved. But they didn’t show their work.
How about this; when books first became widely adopted people bitched that the youth would get lazy. Then it was radio. Then it was television. Then it was the Internet. Then it was social media. Now it’s AI.
The race is always going. But you can stop when ever you feel uncomfortable. But the rest of the pack is going to keep moving to the finish line that never shows up. And new comers can join at any time.
_------------
For Spanish learning, I can now have full endless conversation with something and it never gets tired. It never stops being objective. Since the task is so simple it never fucks up or hallucinates. It never tells me it has other things to do. It never discourages our demeans when I get something wrong. Infact it even plays along with what ever speed or level of language I need it to, such as kindergarten level or elementary level. And all of this is supplemental to actually learning through other means. Try to get that consistency on reddit. Whether that be speed, integrity or volition.
Your suggestion works in 2015 when cleverbot was around or when siri was a creature comfort but it’s 10 years later.
Oh and all of what I mentioned is free - to me.
The pictures aren’t very good I’ll grant you that, but they definitely don’t require even one kWh per image, and besides that basically everything made with a computer costs power. We waste power on nonsense just fine without the help of LLMs or diffusion models.
No, no, and also no. Try again? Or cram your face into a blender? Either is good with me
Are you ok? Too long in the sun?
Bit tired (had to get up too early today) but otherwise okay, thanks. How’s your face? Blended to a fine paste yet?
You’re no no longer using the term Luddite on us! Character development!
Oh you’re a luddite, you’re also a hater and about as intractable and strupid as a trump supporter. You can be many crappy things at once!
That would be absolutely amazing. How can we work out a community effort that is designed to teach, you some crowdsource tests maybe we can bring education to the masses for free…
That would indeed be great but completely unrelated to what I said so I suspect you may have answered the wrong person
Now I want the heaters to shut down so we can make some cool s*** too
Have any regular users actually looked at the prices of the “AI services” and what they actually cost?
I’m a writer. I’ve looked at a few of the AI services aimed at writers. These companies literally think they can get away with “Just Another Streaming Service” pricing, in an era where people are getting really really sceptical about subscribing to yet another streaming service and cancelling the ones they don’t care about that much. As a broke ass writer, I was glad that, with NaNoWriMo discount, I could buy Scrivener for €20 instead of regular price of €40. [note: regular price of Scrivener is apparently €70 now, and this is pretty aggravating.] So why are NaNoWriMo pushing ProWritingAid, a service that runs €10-€12 per month? This is definitely out of the reach of broke ass writers.
Someone should tell the AI companies that regular people don’t want to subscribe to random subscription services any more.
I work for an AI company that’s dying out. We’re trying to charge companies $30k a year and upwards for basically chatgpt plus a few shoddily built integrations. You can build the same things we’re doing with Zapier, at around $35 a month. The management are baffled as to why we’re not closing any of our deals, and it’s SO obvious to me - we’re too fucking expensive and there’s nothing unique with our service.
That’s a good point about the “AI as a service” model that is emerging.
I was reading that NaNoWriMo has had a significant turnover on their board die to the backlash against their pro-AI stance: https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/nanowrimo-ai-controversty-1.7314090
As someone dabbling with writing, I bit the bullet and tried to start looking into the tools to see if they’re actually useful, and I was impressed with the promised tools like grammar help, sentence structure and making sure I don’t leave loose ends in the story writing, these are genuinely useful tools if you’re not using generative capability to let it write mediocre bullshit for you.
But I noticed right away that I couldn’t justify a subscription between $20 - $30 a month, on top of the thousand other services we have to pay monthly for, including even the writing software itself.
I have lived fine and written great things in the past without AI, I can survive just fine without it now. If these companies want to actually sell a product that people want, they need to scale back the expectations, the costs and the bloated, useless bullshit attached to it all.
At some point soon, the costs of running these massive LLM’s versus the number of people actually willing to pay a premium for them are going to exceed reasonable expectations and we will see the companies that host the LLM’s start to scale everything back as they try to find some new product to hype and generate investment on.
But the trillion dollar valued Nvidia…
I’m not sure, these companies are building data centers with so many gpus that they have to be geo located with respect to the power grid because if it were all done in one place it would take the grid down.
And they are just building more.
But the company doesn’t have the money. Stock value means investor valuation, not company funds.
Once a company goes public for the very first time, it’s getting money into its account, but from then on forward, that’s just investors speculating and hoping on a nice return when they sell again.
Of course there should be some correlation between the company’s profitability and the stock price, so ideally they do have quite some money, but in an investment craze like this, the correlation is far from 1:1. So whether they can still afford to build the data centers remains to be seen.
They’re not building them for themselves, they’re selling GPU time and SuperPods. Their valuation is because there’s STILL a lineup a mile long for their flagship GPUs. I get that people think AI is a fad, and it’s public form may be, but there’s thousands of GPU powered projects going on behind closed doors that are going to consume whatever GPUs get made for a long time.
Their valuation is because there’s STILL a lineup a mile long for their flagship GPUs.
Genuinely curious, how do you know where the valuation, any valuation, come from?
This is an interesting story, and it might be factually true, but as far as I know unless someone has actually asked the biggest investor WHY they did bet on a stock, nobody why a valuation is what it is. We might have guesses, and they might even be correct, but they also change.
I mentioned it few times here before but my bet is yes, what you did mention BUT also because the same investors do not know where else do put their money yet and thus simply can’t jump boats. They are stuck there and it might again be become they initially though the demand was high with nobody else could fulfill it, but I believe that’s not correct anymore.
Well, I’m no stockologist, but I believe when your company has a perpetual sales backlog with a 15-year head start on your competition, that should lead to a pretty high valuation.
I’m also no stockologist and I agree but I that’s not my point. The stock should be high but that might already have been factored in, namely this is not a new situation, so theoretically that’s been priced in since investors have understood it. My point anyway isn’t about the price itself but rather the narrative (or reason, as the example you mention on backlog and lack of competition) that investors themselves believe.
but I believe that’s not correct anymore.
Why do you believe that? As far as I understand, other HW exists…but no SW to run on it…
Right, and I mentioned CUDA earlier as one of the reason of their success, so it’s definitely something important. Clients might be interested in e.g Google TPU, startups like Etched, Tenstorrent, Groq, Cerebras Systems or heck even design their own but are probably limited by their current stack relying on CUDA. I imagine though that if backlog do keep on existing there will be abstraction libraries, at least for the most popular ones e.g TensorFlow, JAX or PyTorch, simply because the cost of waiting is too high.
Anyway what I meant isn’t about hardware or software but rather ROI, namely when Goldman Sachs and others issue analyst report saying that the promise itself isn’t up to par with actual usage for paying customers.
Those reports might effect investments from the smaller players, but the big names(Google, Microsoft, Meta, etc.) are locked in a race to the finish line. So their investments will continue until one of them reaches the goal…[insert sunk cost fallacy here]…and I think we’re at least 1-2 years from there.
Edit: posted too soon
Yeah, someone else commented with their financials and they look really good, so while I certainly agree that they are overvalued because we are in an AI training bubble, I don’t see it popping for a few years, especially given that they are selling the shovels. every big player in the space is set on orders of magnitude of additional compute for the next 2 years or more. It doesn’t matter if the company they sold gpus to fails if they already sold them. Something big that unexpected would have to happen to upset that trajectory right now and I don’t see it because companies are in the exploratory stage of ai tech so no one knows what doesn’t work until they get the computer they need. I could be wrong, but that’s what I see as a watcher of ai news channels on YouTube.
The co founder of open AI just got a billion dollars for his new 3 month old AI start up. They are going to spend that money on talent and compute. X just announced a data center with 100,000 gpus for grok2 and plans to build the largest in the world I think? But that’s Elon, so grains of salt and all that are required there. Nvidia are working with robotics companies to make AI that can train robots virtually to do a task and in the real world a robot will succeed first try. No more Boston dynamics abuse compilation videos. Right now agentic ai workflow is supposed to be the next step, so there will be overseer ai algorithms to develop and train.
All that is to say there is a ton of work that requires compute for the next few years.
{Opinion here} – I feel like a lot of people are seeing grifters and a wobbly gpt4o launch and calling the game too soon. It takes time to deliver the next product when it’s a new invention in its infancy and the training parameters are scaling nearly logarithmically from gen to gen.
I’m sure the structuring of payment for the compute devices isn’t as simple as my purchase of a gaming GPU from microcenter, but Nvidia are still financially sound. I could see a lot of companies suffering from this long term but nvidia will be The player in AI compute, whatever that looks like, so they are going to bounce back and be fine.
Couldn’t agree more. There is quite a bit of AI vaporware but NVIDIA is the real stuff and will weather whatever storm comes with ease.
$2.5T currently to be exact
Maybe we can have normal priced graphics cards again.
I’m tired of people pretending £600 is a reasonable price to pay for a mid range GPU.
I think they’re going to be bankrupt within 5 years. They have way too much invested in this bubble.
NVIDIA uses of AI technology aren’t going to pop, things like DLSS are here to stay. The value of the company and their sales are inflated by the bubble, but the core technology of NVIDIA is applicable way beyond the chat bot hype.
Bubbles don’t mean there’s no underlying value. The dot com bubble didn’t take down the internet.
Fall in share price, yes.
Bankrupt, no. Their debt to Equity Ratio is 0.1455. They can pay off their $11.23 B debt with 2 months of revenue. They can certainly afford the interest payments.
I highly doubt that. If the AI bubble pops, they’ll probably be worth a lot less relative to other tech companies, but hardly bankrupt. They still have a very strong GPU business, they probably have an agreement with Nintendo on the next Switch (like they did with the OG Switch), and they could probably repurpose the AI tech in a lot of different ways, not to mention various other projects where they package GPUs into SOCs.
It really depends on how much they’ve invested in building AI chips.
Sure, but their deliveries have also been incredibly large. I’d be surprised if they haven’t already made enough from previous sales to cover all existing and near-term investments into AI. The scale of the build-out by big cloud firms like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft has been absolutely incredible, and Nvidia’s only constraint has been making enough of them to sell. So even if support completely evaporates, I think they’ll be completely fine.
They don’t build the chips at all. They pay tsmc.
Nvidia is diversified in AI, though. Disregarding LLM, it’s likely that other AI methodologies will depend even more on their tech or similar.
FMO is the best explanation of this psychosis and then of course denial by people who became heavily invested in it. Stuff like LLMs or ConvNets (and the likes) can already be used to do some pretty amazing stuff that we could not do a decade ago, there is really no need to shit rainbows and puke glitter all over it. I am also not against exploring and pushing the boundaries, but when you explore a boundary while pretending like you have already crossed it, that is how you get bubbles. And this again all boils down to appeasing some cancerous billionaire shareholders so they funnel down some money to your pockets.
Stuff like LLMs or ConvNets (and the likes) can already be used to do some pretty amazing stuff that we could not do a decade ago, there is really no need to shit rainbows and puke glitter all over it.
I’m shitting rainbows and puking glitter on a daily basis BUT it’s not against AI as a field, it’s not against AI research, rather it’s against :
- catastrophism and fear, even eschatology, used as a marketing tactic
- open systems and research that become close
- trying to lock a market with legislation
- people who use a model, especially a model they don’t even have e.g using a proprietary API, and claim they are an AI startup
- C-levels decision that anything now must include AI
- claims that this or that skill is soon to be replaced by AI with actually no proof of it
- meaningless test results with grand claim like “passing the bar exam” used as marketing tactics
- claims that it scales, it “just needs more data”, not for .1% improvement but for radical change, e.g emergent learning
- for-profit (different from public research) scrapping datasets without paying back anything to actual creators
- ignoring or lying about non renewable resource consumption for both training and inference
- relying on “free” or loss leader strategies to dominate a market
- promoting to be doing the work for the good of humanity then signing exclusive partnership with a corporation already fined for monopoly practices
I’m sure I’m forgetting a few but basically none of those criticism are technical. None of those criticism is about the current progress made. Rather, they are about business practices.
there is really no need shit rainbows and puke glitter all over it
I’m now picturing the unicorn from the Squatty Potty commercial, with violent diarrhea and vomiting.
I find it insane when “tech bros” and AI researchers at major tech companies try to justify the wasting of resources (like water and electricity) in order to achieve “AGI” or whatever the fuck that means in their wildest fantasies.
These companies have no accountability for the shit that they do and consistently ignore all the consequences their actions will cause for years down the road.
It’s research. Most of it never pans out, so a lot of it is “wasteful”. But if we didn’t experiment, we wouldn’t find the things that do work.
I agree, but these researchers/scientists should be more mindful about the resources they use up in order to generate the computational power necessary to carry out their experiments. AI is good when it gets utilized to achieve a specific task, but funneling a lot of money and research towards general purpose AI just seems wasteful.
I mean general purpose AI doesn’t cap out at human intelligence, of which you could utilize to come up with ideas for better resource management.
Could also be a huge waste but the potential is there… potentially.
I don’t think I’ve heard a lot of actual research in the AI area not connected to machine learning (which may be just one component, not really necessary at that).
Most of the entire AI economy isn’t even research. It’s just grift. Slapping a label on ChatGPT and saying you’re an AI company. It’s hustlers trying to make a quick buck from easy venture capital money.
Is it really a grift when you are selling possible value to an investor who would make money from possible value?
As in, there is no lie, investors know it’s a gamble and are just looking for the gamble that everyone else bets on, not that it l would provide real value.
I would classify speculation as a form of grift. Someone gets left holding the bag.
You can probably say the same about all fields, even those that have formal protections and regulations. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t people that have PhD’s in the field and are trying to improve it for the better.
Sure but typically that’s a small part of the field. With AI it’s a majority, that’s the difference.
No, it is the majority in every field.
Specialists are always in the minority, that is like part of their definition.
The majority of every field is fraudsters? Seriously?
What’s funny is that we already have general intelligence in billions of brains. What tech bros want is a general intelligence slave.
Well put.
I’m sure plenty of people would be happy to be a personal assistant for searching, summarizing, and compiling information, as long as they were adequately paid for it.
Welp, it was ‘fun’ while it lasted. Time for everyone to adjust their expectations to much more humble levels than what was promised and move on to the next sceme. After Metaverse, NFTs and ‘Don’t become a programmer, AI will steal your job literally next week!11’, I’m eager to see what they come up with next. And with eager I mean I’m tired. I’m really tired and hope the economy just takes a damn break from breaking things.
I just hope I can buy a graphics card without having to sell organs some time in the next two years.
I’d love an upgrade for my 2080 TI, really wish Nvidia didn’t piss off EVGA into leaving the GPU business…
If there is even a GPU being sold. It’s much more profitable for Nvidia to just make compute focused chips than upgrading their gaming lineup. GeForce will just get the compute chips rejects and laptop GPU for the lower end parts. After the AI bubble burst, maybe they’ll get back to their gaming roots.
My RX 580 has been working just fine since I bought it used. I’ve not been able to justify buying a new (used) one. If you have one that works, why not just stick with it until the market gets flooded with used ones?
Don’t count on it. It turns out that the sort of stuff that graphics cards do is good for lots of things, it was crypto, then AI and I’m sure whatever the next fad is will require a GPU to run huge calculations.
I’m sure whatever the next fad is will require a GPU to run huge calculations.
I also bet it will, cf my earlier comment on rendering farm and looking for what “recycles” old GPUs https://lemmy.world/comment/12221218 namely that it makes sense to prepare for it now and look for what comes next BASED on the current most popular architecture. It might not be the most efficient but probably will be the most economical.
AI is shit but imo we have been making amazing progress in computing power, just that we can’t really innovate atm, just more race to the bottom.
——
I thought capitalism bred innovation, did tech bros lied?
/s
move on to the next […] eager to see what they come up with next.
That’s a point I’m making in a lot of conversations lately : IMHO the bubble didn’t pop BECAUSE capital doesn’t know where to go next. Despite reports from big banks that there is a LOT of investment for not a lot of actual returns, people are still waiting on where to put that money next. Until there is such a place, they believe it’s still more beneficial to keep the bet on-going.
But if it doesn’t disrupt it isn’t worth it!
/s
AI doesn’t need to steal all programmer jobs next week, but I have much doubt there will still be many available in 2044 when even just LLMs still have so many things that they can improve on in the next 20 years.
