I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol edit 3/3: lol
As others have said, the stock market has little to do with reality. It’s focused on money and business reports. As long as companies are showing profits, the stock market literally doesn’t care.
Something only hits it when businesses hit it. Look at today’s market. Walmart posted bad futures and the whole market recoiled (only a bit but still).
There’s also just the denial phase. Lots of people, at lots of levels, are dependent on the stock market for their own finances. Literally everyone with a 401k has an interest in the market doing well. Saying “welp, we’re fucked” is just not something that anyone wants to put towards wall street. It’s why we have market “crashes”, because people hold out until the water covers the bow of the sinking shop then they freak out and bail out at the last second.
There’s also just the denial phase.
As evidenced in The Big Short when it was very clear to banks and regulators that the whole mortgage shell game was falling apart and they all refused to act on it.
See, now I have had a few things pegged as being in the denial phase for a while. I’m in Australia, so the housing market I have had pegged to collapse, also I figured we would be heading into a recession coming on 3 years ago and changed businesses to “weather the upcoming recession”
Now while things have cooled off since then, and I still think both elements are overcooked, I obviously moved way to soon.
So my question is, how do you time the denial phase? The housing market issue has been going on for about 30 years from what I can tell (though it got more reasonable for half a minute a bit over a decade ago and then went stupid again).
In my lifetime, and I’m 40 now, I haven’t seen a proper major correction where bad decisions and greed was punished. I should have been “taking stupid risks” the entire time and I would have been just fine.
I mean that’s part of the thing right? “Who dares wins” is a great mantra until you lose. Nobody can predict the future so a lot of times the greed carries out until it’s literally irreversible. That’s why it’s so important to have people on the other end defending from the greed, from the people that will hoard and take until they die on their pile of gold.
At least for the US there is always a feeling of doom and worry and “it’s going to pop” but until it actually does, the greed will continue to take. That’s part of the system for better or worse. It can’t be stopped, but defending the people from the repercussions of that greed is what we have to do.
There’s always someone that will try to bring too much on the lifeboat. Rules are needed to stop them from sinking the whole ship.
Fascist coups succeed when the rich have bought into the coup.
Why would the rich seizing full control of the state make the stock market go down?
It’s called 401ks, literally anyone with a 9-5 job has one. The entire retirement system was designed to keep people invested in the stock market and betting on it.
Not all of us. I prefer hard metals.
Ya beat me to it. Working class people got tricked into turning over their income to be a floor for the US stock market. I always decline 401k benefits at corpo jobs and I love the looks of bewilderment and attempted lectures I’ve received. It’s pretty obvious that HR or someone gets kickbacks for enrolling new employees.
The stock market is up because nothing has fundamentally changed. Tarrifs are only going to hurt the consumer.
The stock market is based on value extraction and as long as everyone keeps on working and consuming at reasonable level it will continue to hum along just fine.
Some markets and industries will be harmed by this the tarrifs but these are small fractions of the overall economy. There is also a ton of uncertainty since Trump has a tendency to pull back any measure that affects the market averages.
The pain will be felt by workers and consumers but people have to work and we cannot stop consuming so affected workers will ultimately shift to new places and consumption will shift to new products and the skim will continue.
Global markets aren’t going to get shaken up because the global market is incredibly resilient. Prices will quiver for a bit but in the long run they will simply route around us and new normals will emerge.
The only way things change is if the people cause it to change. Either accidentally or on purpose. But the change has to be sudden and swift because there are tons of levers built into the system to force us to participate.
Something like national strike might not be enough unless it can be sustained indefinitely and it’s not clear how that could occur. I suspect will take several events each gaining the momentum of the last and there is little chance of a first event for occurring.
The stock market is indicating it doesn’t think we have the fortitude and despite what we may want to be true, they know a lot about us and our patterns. Our predictability is to their profit, literally.
Because it’s now completely disconnected from the reality of the actual economy. It has been for a very long time. It has to do with how much money is funneled into the wealthiest hands.
Crime. It was crime before, but it’s crime now too.
The people who were supposed to be in charge of preventing the crime didn’t do it before because they were part and party to it, they certainly won’t enforce the laws now.
It’s almost like financial value is artificially assigned or something, and not, like, intrinsic.
yes financial value isn’t intrinsic, it’s created, but it’s created by group acclimation, a thing is worth what a) someone of a group of someones says it’s worth AND by b) a second group who is willing to pay what the first group has valued that thing at, for that thing. but it’s an understanding, which is based in observable, recordable, and prooveable metrics BASED equally on the intangible of trust in the underlying business system upon which it is offered. That second bit can’t exist in the current environment, when the Constitution and all law based on it, are becoming meaningless.
You kind of get it with your own answer but are refusing to see it.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet. Let this be a chance for some awareness of your own personal information bubble and possible over doom scrolling.
This is not saying this administration isn’t going to cause some terrible shit. It just hasn’t stuck yet. Nothing the administration has done has prevented Microsoft or Google or Netflix from collecting their subscription fees. The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet.
This is s completely incorrect take on the stock market.
Rule #1 of the stock market is that none understands how it responds to inputs.
Rule #2 is that it attempts to factor in future expectations, so if you wait for something to happen, the impact is already accounted for in the price if the stock.
Market frenzy, people piling on when FOMO takes over, etc all make it impossible to have any level of certainty. So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
My reply addresses this with your 2nd point. What I’m trying to say is that maybe the market did factor in the fuckery and has so far believed it to be a nothing burger.
Everyone could be wrong, of course, but so far that is what the markets indicates. So naturally the follow up questions should be, are the markets wrong? Or am I (OP) consuming too much media from my bubble which is overexaggerating the doom and gloom?
To expand: the economy runs on many fuels. Progress, yes. But also blood.
The progress is also made of blood
Have we checked inside the billionaires to see what they are made of ?
I hear they’re full of candy, like a fat bloated piñata.
Then we should string them up in a tree and beat them with sticks,
… To get the candy.
Blood from crushed orphans is up 300% this year! 📈
Because not enough people are selling.
If people / companies don’t believe the stocks will lose value they won’t sell. If they don’t sell they won’t lose value.
A few reasons:
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Market prices are more often determined by speculation than actual intrinsic value. People will say that the market is “efficient” in the sense that everything is valued efficiently based on the value it’s worth, but take one look at meme stocks and you’ll see that prices can easily be influenced by large volumes of purchases instead of any actual intrinsic value in the corporation being invested in. A lot of money being funneled into index funds can lead to the price of stocks continually increasing without actual value of the underlying companies being taken into account as much as you would think.
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Fascism is supported by, and continues to support capitalism. Corporations benefit from capitalism, especially under a system where safeguards are removed and businesses can make larger profit margins as a result.
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A lot of the changes Trump is making hurt working people, but don’t hurt corporations. (and often even help corporations directly) For instance, he’s making union busting easier, knows that any tariffs can simply be passed on by the companies without shrinking their margins, (just costing you more), is cracking down on legal immigration to the point that illegal migrant workers are even easier to exploit with the threat of deportation, etc. A lot of the bad things Trump is doing will only affect us, not corporations or the capital owning class.
All of that makes sense only if you fundamentally misunderstand the concept of “underpinnings”. The German stock market was valueless to anyone, and it’s stocks not worth the paper they were printed on when the Nazis took over, only German companies being offered on American stock exchanges kept and grew, and realized their value during and after the war. You sounded smart there for a minute, until I thought about what you wrote. It’s like your whistling in a hurricane, a south park cop saying nothing to see here nothing to see here.
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Look up how IBM, Coca Cola and Volkswagen (among many, many other companies that are very much still established to this day) got their boom-times during WW2 by supporting both the allies and the fash at the same time. They profited from everything that happened, in every way, and continue to do so.
Fascism is good for business, so to speak.
IBM, Coca Cola were offered on the American Stock Exchange you potted plant, not the Nazi stock exchange, and Volkswagen was using Jewish slave labor at Auschwitz to make their cars, what the fuck are you talking about. Fascism isn’t good for business, it’s always destructive. The American Stock exchange still governed by sanity and the underlying business law back by the Constitution functioned as it should during WW2, not the fucking Nazi stock exchange, jesus fuck
You really seem to know what you’re talking about so I probably don’t have to link you to the article about Fanta which Coca-Cola (as you say, listed on the US Stock Exchange) made the “drink of the nazis” and profited bigtime from.
IBM had major contracts with the nazis and developed some of the earliest rudimentary card computing tech to keep track of all the interred jews in the camps. I bet you knew that as well. IBM wouldn’t be around today without those contracts and that early tech (and the money it brought in).
What the actual fuck do you have against potted plants that you would use that as an insult anyway.
Look at Tesla stock prices - even after a slight deflation it’s astronomically overvalued and divorced from reality.
We’re in a speculative bubble baby!
Divorced from reality? Teslas CEO controls Treasury payments as of a week ago.
I cannot think of an easier bet than on a dictator’s personal interests rising. Trump is just a sock puppet for a bit. Musk, Vance, etc. are the next Gen of uglier.
how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point.
I keep asking myself this same question as I stare at my retirement savings in what seems like trump’s crosshairs. I only have a few possible answers, and none of them are enough to explain the continued high valuations.
The only things i know are: “the market is irrational” and “time in the market beats timing the market”. How long before the crash occurs? How much gains are lost if I pull it out too early? Days? Years? Even if I were to pull everything out now, when would I know its safe to put it back in? Would I accurately be able to determine the bottom of the market and magically put it all back in to reap the spoils? If the damage trump does to our country destroys the value of the dollar, then even having pulled everything to cash would mean it would be in (at that time) worthless US Dollars.
I’m simply not that smart to execute that successfully and I don’t pretend to be.
The “full faith and credit of the united states government” as expressed and guaranteed in American dollars, is probably pretty safe for a while at least, as most of the world’s nations economies still base their own currency on the us dollar, but that’s going to unravel at some point sooner than later i imagine
The “full faith and credit of the united states government” as expressed and guaranteed in American dollars, is probably pretty safe for a while at least,
February 10, 2025 quotes from the article:
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Trump says some Treasury payments might ‘not count’
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“We’re even looking at Treasuries,” Trump said. “There could be a problem - you’ve been reading about that, with Treasuries and that could be an interesting problem.”
If trump decides to not pay on US Treasury Bills even ONE TIME, that’s the whole ball game. The indestructible, ever-present, no-safer-investment-literally-anywhere-in-the-world is gone forever. The USA is able to be the nation it is because we are allowed to borrow money from the rest of the entire world and unbelievably low interest rates. If we’re forced to pay higher rates on our T-bills because we aren’t trustworthy anymore we will immediately drown in our $36.22 trillion national debt.
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keeping its* value
Trump is generating an enormous level of security risk globally, which encourages investment money flow to the country with the biggest military. Ironically, that happens to be the US.
I’ll agree with what others are saying about speculation but I’ll add a few points…
Meme investing. People just buy shit now. You can download Robinhood or any other free app and buy something you read about because you feel like it. That’s a lot different than traditional stock valuation. And in some cases (GameStop?) the public can have such force that it massively overwhelms traditional stock valuation
The other point is that businesses will still function. Will it suck to have a 20+% tariff? Yes. Will in end a massive global corporation? No. A trade war can’t kill multinationals because they have a foot in both sides, in a sense (that’s a crazy oversimplification)
