perun weighs in on tariffs and guesses what might come next https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVZ1lcw2bVU

some things perun notes that i hadn’t because i haven’t followed the entire situation closely: that trade deficit calculation uses goods only, not services, and this is most of what sv exports; eu might retaliate against sv oligarchs specifically. also we’re in times where it’s necessary to pull up american govt pages from internet archive to make a point. fun. also chatbot-cooked policy looks suspiciously like chatbot solution to a entry level econ course toy problem with loads of very unusual assumptions, which are discussed too.

maybe stable genius tries to bring american wages closer to global average

so I previously predicted the AI bubble would pop on Trump’s watch and crash the stock market. Never did I envision Trump doing it to himself, in a manner so stupid I’m not sure anyone anticipated it.

I’m wondering what this does to the AI bubble. I think the bubble is led by trillions of dollars desperate for lottery-sized returns. There’s so much family, pension and sovereign wealth money that can’t get returns on sane investments that they’re left only with insane ones.

This is not about tech at all. If they thought they could do a tech bubble with ELIZA chatbots, we’d have number power plants being restarted to power hyperscale data centres running billions of copies of ELIZA.

What would it take for this crash to affect the AI bubble materially?

People found a trick for the EU to get round the tariffs.

The Vatican was excluded from the tariff list and Italy is at the 20% EU rate. I hope some scheming cardinal sees the opportunity here.

italians are about to invent a form of corruption so lucrative it will destroy the global economy

Dowhammer 40k is real!

Brian Merchant’s given his thoughts on the situation, focusing mainly on the situation as a case of Trump’s administration falling for the AGI hype.

You want my off-the-cuff thoughts on these tariffs, I’m putting them down as another nail in the coffin for AI as a concept, and a possible blow to “AI doom” narratives as a whole.

For AI as a concept, this entire debacle is a very public and very high-profile example of AI failing to live up to the “AGI/Superintelligence” hype that OpenAI and pals have been cranking out - and failing in a manner which suggests their AI systems (rightfully so, IMO) to be worse than useless.

For “AI Doom” narratives, whilst this economic clusterfuck is an example of AI dealing a nasty blow to humanity, said blow was dealt through a combo of unambiguous incompetence on the AI’s part, and the Trump administration overestimating the AI’s own competence. No diamonoid bacteria, no Skynet-style Terminator apocalypse, just sheer unfiltered stupidity on a government-wide level.

seen a thesis/opinion that the tariffs as positioned is a covert solicitation for bribes, a test to see who’ll line up to kiss the ring and ask for exceptions

holds some water but I don’t really see how it’s expected to scale internationally? “hope the CEOs beg their national economic leadership”?

the whole damn thing is ofc stupid but (as I’ve said in other cases) shrugging the whole off because of that is dangerous - worth interrogating even despite the stupid, because they still have impact

I know this is going to hurt millions of regular people in and outside the US, many of them through no fault of their own. Despite that I can’t help myself.

Not even a thank you

United Healthcare of all things is green though.

Financial Times agrees with this analysis

https://archive.is/6JGEI

If only Musk had been a Real Gamer, he would have played Vic3 (as the one person who can buy all the Paradox games + all the DLC), he could have warned them that going from free markets to tariffs is going to be a huge disaster. Instant going from Great Power to Minor Power. Hope the 50% reduction in migration attraction is worth the massive costs and being invaded by the UK again. The 125% change in interest rates is also going to really fuck the country over.

(yeah sorry im a big nerd, also just took the %es from the wiki, not sure the UK would invade, but any player prob would, I did once as the Dutch, defeating the US and getting the District of Columbia which was quite amusing (for a joke, the land itself is quite worthless ingame))

To be fair their calculation also involves multiplying by the carefully chosen factors of 4 and 0.25. It’s a macroeconomics thing you probably wouldn’t understand. https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021).

This “Cavallo” reference isn’t actually listed in their citations (gee I wonder why) but appears to be Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy (link).

Meanwhile Cavallo et al 2021:

Chinese exporters did not lower their dollar prices by much, despite the recent appreciation of the dollar. By contrast, US exporters significantly lowered prices affected by foreign retaliatory tariffs. In US stores, the price impact is more limited, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. […] Our results imply that, so far, the tariffs’ incidence has fallen in large part on US firms.

Amazing. The government’s official position is that tariffs are OK because both US exporters and importers get less money.

Can we get this thread pinned? I guess that this thread will keep on giving 🍿