CTV News also made the same call.
Majority or minority gov tbd
Mark Carney and his wife Diana Fox Carney take in the results in Ottawa. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
Why did SW ON go conservative? Is that normal?
Rural Ontario always votes conservative.
Been interesting to watch the seats swinging, it’s going to definitely be close all night.
I’m curious how Polievre will do in his own riding, he is against a liberal Bruce Fanjoy who has actually done pretty well for himself and the early voting was counted first in that riding which had Bruce up a few votes so it’ll be a matter of time to see how it actually goes since the early vote was said to be largely Liberal supporters.
Edit: oh my god he did it, he lost his seat to Bruce.
Can you imagine if, at 45 he has to make a resume and try to find a job for the first time?
Unless the knives come out for him as leader, a newly elected MP in a nice, safe western riding will likely step down and trigger a by-election for PP to carpetbag his way in. It still isn’t official yet, but is still looking very much like a bunch of federal public servants in his riding didn’t trust him not to sack them.
We’re gonna lose our little PP in Ottawa.
You’ve put a tourniquet on the wound. You won’t bleed to death. Now you have to face the grim work of amputating the infected limb.
Use this time to marginalize conservative influence in any way you can. Obstruct every single thing they attempt to do. Keep attacking and never stop. Drive them into the margins of society where they belong. Do not give them a single inch (or centimeter, if you will.)
What is happening in the US should serve as a cautionary tale of what happens when the disease that is conservative culture goes unchecked. You have the advantage. Go on the attack and don’t stop until they stay down.
Trump has to be an absolute kiss of death for political candidates.
If only that were true in the US.
Interesting situation right now at about midnight. 172 needed for a majority, projections say they’ll be about 10 short. NDP is projected to get about 10 seats, which might not be enough to bring a Liberal/NDP coalition up to 172. Greens are down to 1 seat, leaving only Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois.
What happens if the Liberals and Conservatives (and Green) can’t form a coalition to hit 172. Would the Liberals actually make a coalition with the Bloc Quebecois? What could they agree on? What would the Bloc demand?
A coalition is not the same as a minority government, there has only ever been 2 canadian coalitions. It’s pretty unlikely that will happen.
I think a minority supported by BQ will be good for the environment, significant tightening on immigration, probably liberal agenda otherwise. the BQ is much more closely aligned with Libs than CPC, as I think Blanchet made clear in the english debate. A LIB+NDP+Green isn’t totally out of the question right now, probably also good for the environment.
I just hope that this time the small parties can push to get rid of FPTP. This election would have looked so different with any other form of voting.
The NDP is set to lose official party status. Do you think any of them will cross the floor to the Libs?
1am (EST) and 1 of the 3 major party leaders has lost his seat (Singh). Bruce Fanjoy (LIB) has a 2500 vote lead over Poilievre in Carleton with 68% of the votes counted, so it’s looking fairly likely he’ll lose too.
I wonder if there has ever been an election where this many parties have changed leaders in such a short span of time. First Trudeau stepping down, then the NDP and Cons both having their leaders lose their seats. The only party leaders who survived the election and kept their seats are Elizabeth May and Yves-François Blanchet.
Bruce Fanjoy is just a likeable guy too. The best kind to upset starchy pants.
With a name like that he’d have to be.
We needed this badly. It was clear that a few months ago we had no leader that Canadians were happy with.
polymarket knew this months ago, just saying
edit: polymarket knew the odds of this happening were ~75-80% months ago, just saying
“Knew”
yeah, its a prediction market, and when there’s millions of dollars on both sides, its really accurate
Fair, but call it what it is: a prediction
ok. btw it doesn’t say it precisely, it gives a percentage.
Right, it’s admittedly pedantic, but they know better than to say they “know”.
Huge sigh of relief
I hate how much of my mental well being was hinging on this.
Now, imagine if the election went the other way when you wake up, and you’ll get the full American experience…
Congrats though. The last thing the world needs is more trump clones/wannabe dictators.
It may not have been as bombastic, but any scientist living through the Harper governments DID get the American experience. We are trying to recover from that scientific crippling to this day.
Now it’s time to get on the MP’s to make some changes. Don’t stop now. No matter what party. We need to ensure our government does better in regards to First Nations, minorities and the disabled. As well as electoral reform.
Electoral reform is the biggest issue we need to tackle. Without proportional representation, Canada will continue its rightward march to polarizing American style politics.
We need to keep fighting to make the Liberals and NDP choose Canada over party.
I disagree with that second bit.
We need to fight to make as many citizens as possible choose Canada over a party. This divisive political party bullshit gets us nowhere. Even the cons. It’s American politics and it can go back where it came from.
I remember my parents and grandparents having political conversations with their friends. They didn’t always agree that is certain. There were some heated debates as well as some quiet times of contemplation. They discussed it and allowed one another to voice their political opinions without making it a personal fight.
We need that again. I’m 50 and I couldn’t do that with anyone I know that has different political beliefs than me, which is pretty much everyone.
And as a disabled Canadian I live under a fascist regime who wants me dead. I can MAID any time I like but I live in abject poverty and so does my family. First Nations people…the same except our government actively tries to exterminate them while keeping them in poverty and fighting against their rights enshrined by law when they attempt to change their financial standing. Foreign workers doing our shit jobs for minimum wage and getting stomped and shit on by corporate olygarchs serve you coffee, gas and food every single day.
How about everyone gets a fair go please.
First past the post tends to produce adversarial politics, whereas proportional representation trends to produce collaborative politics.
Canada used to be better about that because we had more minority governments, but things have been moving closer to American style two party.
I completely agree that the divisiveness at a community level is also a problem, but electoral reform is a concrete thing we can advocate for that will improve this.
The majority of Canadians support proportional representation, so the barrier is getting politicians to put down short sighted self interest.
As someone who lives in poverty thanks to my fellow Canadians not standing up for people like me and ignoring the issues that affect my family the most, I will continue to add that first Nations, minorities and people with disabilities live in a fascist state right now in Canada. No matter the government and that needs to change. Now.
Only the people of the country standing up to the parties and politicians will change this. As you have pointed out electoral reform is already supported by the vast majority of Canadians and has a very strong voice that keeps getting stronger. It is a major issue for many Canadians as it should be.
Who mentions the first Nations and the disabled when they speak or act within our government? Who is fighting for the rights of those with the smallest voices? How many Canadians even know these issues exist for us? Who feeds my kids when I cannot because my government and the people of my country couldn’t care less about us the most vulnerable members of your society? Who cares for their health needs because I can no longer can?Who makes sure they grow up healthy and strong and smart and not a drain on society as a whole? Me. But I can’t do that because I live below poverty for a single individual in my province but I have 3 kids. All this simply because I developed an illness that broke my body and a public that would rather forget about me and people like me.
This doesn’t need to be a single issue win but if we make it that, we ensure the country continues down a path towards fascism and American style politics no matter the reform to our voting system. You get your single issue reform and the country keeps on ticking like it always has. Smashing the little guy into bits. That’s fascism and it’s as much a part of our country as it is the Americans we deride so much.
People matter. If you watch the Americans right now they’re at one another’s throats. We aren’t far off that in our own country. Stand up for the little guy while you fight.
That’s Canadian.
Interesting, i’d have thought housing/cost of living would’ve been on a list like that. I thought it was a fairly big issue going into the Canadian election?
It’s a short list on my part. I have some “pet” issues that dominate my life because of my personal experiences that simply don’t make headlines and are lesser known issues. I openly admit that.
Thanks God that my riding is no bellwether
lmfao such a conservative stronghold here.
Congrats, Canada! Don’t ever let this brain disease that has destroyed our country overtake you.
We still have a lot of work to do. We aren’t blameless nor are our political parties. All of them.
I really thought that 51st state of the US push at the end there would save conservatives. Everyone knows how badly Canadians want to lose their independence, culture, healthcare, etc.
Seriously though, the next government should probably start planning for the refugee camps it’ll need on the southern border in the coming years. Or maybe build a wall.
Weirdly optimistic scenario where there are refugees but they decide not to follow through on their Greenland and 51st state threats.
If the US is going to follow through on the threats then they better do it quickly. It won’t be too long before Trump has the US armed forces functioning about as well as Russia’s.
if it came down to a war between the US and Canada, i wouldn’t be betting on the US
The threats of various US invasions being 100% senile blustering, coupled with an economic crisis and/or loss of freedom in the US to the point that people would need to flee the country rapidly, isn’t that far-fetched.
Seems early, but they usually have a pretty good reason to call things when they do.
I’m cautiously optimistic as well.
polymarkets got the odds at ~75-80% of the liberals wining
Waaaaaaaaaaaay too much conservative support here for my comfort. For a party to drop a platform as shit as theirs and have governing documents as horribly written and contradicting as theirs to STILL GET ALMOST HALF the votes? What. The. Fuck.
Merci beaucoups de Quebec for saving us all from what could have been a real bad 4 years, but let’s not get comfortable.
Honestly, as a souverainiste, I’m low-key scared for y’all in the ROC. Unless something major happens, I’ll vote yes in a referendum.
I’m sick of seeing the Overton window shifted to the right and feeling like my province has to struggle to avoid full throttle fascism. I want out.
What will the ROC do if Quebec’s not here anymore? I hope my worries are unfounded and I’m just being an arrogant prick by thinking this way.
I mean duh? Did anyone think otherwise?
You remain optimistic in 2025?
After PP’s horrible showing post-Trump (and dozens of polls)? Yeah. Canada is the Western country with the best odds of remaining a democracy in 20 years, followed not so closely by Eastern Europe and Australia.
I appreciate that
way to go canada!
australia’s turn next in less than a week and our polls look roughly the same… cross your fingers for us!
You bogans got this after canada paved the way the way
Good luck you cunts
🤞 Good luck!
