Who’s afraid of Prigozhin and Wagner?

In which Bhadrakumar argues that Putin did not assassinate Prigozhin.

First, why such a crude method reminiscent of the murder of the charismatic Iranian general Qasem Suleimani, the spearhead of Tehran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ against America, by former US president Donald Trump?

In his celebrated 1827 essay titled On Murder Considered as one of the Fine Arts, Thomas De Quincey wrote, “Everything in this world has two handles. Murder, for instance, may be laid hold of by its moral handle… and that, I confess, is its weak side; or it may also be treated aesthetically, as the Germans call it, that is, in relation to good taste.” The aesthetic of Prigozhin’s murder is, simply put, the least appealing by the principle of murder connoisseurship if the motivation were revenge .

Second, Prigozhin was a dead man walking for staging such an idiotic act, after his security cover was withdrawn by the state. Imagine ex-president Barack Obama without secret service protection after the murder of Osama bin Laden — or Mike Pompeo and Trump walking around without security after murdering Soleimani.

But Putin made it clear that Wagner still would have a future and the nation will remember its role in the Ukraine war. Putin even invited Prigozhin to a Kremlin meeting. Arguably, Putin’s first remarks on Prigozhin’s death betray a trace of pity. (here and here)

Putin said, “I’ve known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the early 1990s. He was a man of no easy fate. He made some serious mistakes in his life, but he also achieved the needed results – both for himself and, when I asked him, for the common cause. The way it was in recent months.”

“As far as I know, he returned from Africa only yesterday. He met with some officials here. He worked not only in our country – and he worked successfully, but also abroad, especially in Africa. There, he dealt with oil, gas, precious metals and stones,” Putin added.

In the excessive zeal to focus on Prigozhin’s murder to demonise Putin, what is overlooked is that whoever choreographed the crime also ensured that Wagner’s entire command structure has been eliminated. Bye, bye, Africa!

There isn’t going to be anyone in the foreseeable future to challenge the hegemony of the French Legion in the Sahel or match the vast network of 29 bases under Pentagon’s Africa Command spread across the continent from Djibouti in the north to Botswana in the south. Put differently, the long arm of Russia’s “smart power” has been chopped off with one single swing of the blade. Who stands to gain?

Third, Prigozhin’s murder was staged on a special day that in a historical perspective, must be counted as the finest hour of Russian diplomacy ever since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. The reality of “a new starting point for BRICS” — as Chinese President Xi Jinping stated — is yet to sink in fully, but what is beyond doubt is that Russia is walking away as the winner.

I must admit, I am completely unconvinced by the first two arguments. There are all sorts of reasons why Putin would kill Prigozhin in this dramatic way instead of poison or being pushed out of a skyscraper window. And Wagner’s influence in Africa is certainly notable but not especially effective as far as I can tell - and, sure, the people in the plane may have been good commanders (I don’t actually know) but it’s not as if new ones can’t be found. Wagner’s forces still exist, in one form or another. His argument that it’s a very odd time to do so given the BRICS summit gives me a bit of pause, but it’s still fairly unconvincing. He also mentions that many people wanted Prigozhin dead, from France, to America, to Ukraine. True enough, but so might Putin, regardless of what he has said in the past. It’s realpolitik, baby.

Anyway, Bhadrakumar then moves on to the BRICS summit:

Make no mistake that the BRICS unity held firm and rubbished all western prognosis; BRICS expansion means that the issue of a single settlement currency is on the table, and the international financial system is not going to be the same again; de-dollarisation is knocking at the gates; a new global trading system is taking shape which renders obsolete the exploitative 4-century old western regime geared to transfer wealth to the rich countries; BRICS has graduated, finally, from an informal club to an institution that will eclipse the G7.

The host country South Africa delivered big-time for the Russian and Chinese agenda of multipolarity. The joint statement issued by South Africa and China and the induction of Ethiopia (where the West tried to stage a regime change) as BRICS member underscore the emerging alignment in Africa. Doesn’t all that add up to something?

And, above all, the big message coming out of Johannesburg is that with all the king’s horses and all the king’s men, the Biden administration has failed miserably to “isolate” Russia — it is there writ large in the resplendent glow of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s effulgent smile. Russia is capping its gains in the battlefields of Ukraine with an outstanding diplomatic victory by being on the right side of history alongside the global majority.

RT - US doubles uranium imports from Russia [24/08/2023]

The US bought 416 tons of uranium from Russia in the first half of the year, more than double the amount for the same period in 2022 and the highest level since 2005, RIA Novosti reported on Thursday, citing data from the US statistical service.

The US also significantly increased its purchases of uranium from the UK in the first half of this year, up 28% to $383.1 million, bringing it to just under 18% of all imports. Imports from France soared to $319 million (15% of US total imports), compared to $1.9 million for the same period in 2022.

According to a recent New York Times report, roughly a third of enriched uranium used in the US is imported from Russia. GHS Climate, a clean-energy consulting company, states that one out of every 20 American homes and businesses was powered by Russian uranium last year.

The US and the EU have sanctioned Russian oil, gas, and coal over the Ukraine conflict, but have continued to allow the purchase of enriched uranium from Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, as they race to cut reliance on fossil fuels.

Al Arabiya - Ukraine needs 130 fighter jets to achieve air supremacy over Russia: Air Force [21/08/2023]

“Ukraine needs 128 fighters to replace the old aircraft fleet – this number is prescribed in the vision of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” said Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesman for the Air Force Command of Ukraine, according to state news agency Ukrinform.

TASS - Poland to remain Ukraine’s ‘close friend’ until end of military action — Zelensky’s office [05/08/2023]

Ukraine will consider Poland as its close friend until the end of combat but afterwards Kiev will fiercely defend its interests, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, has asserted.

“Poland is the closest partner and friend we have these days. And, generally, it will remain this way until the end of the war. After it’s over, of course, we will have a competitive relationship, of course, we will compete for various markets, consumers, and so on. And, of course, we will clearly adopt pro-Ukrainian positions, protect these interests, fiercely defend them,” he told Ukraine’s Dom TV channel.

WaPo - Russia recruited operatives online to target weapons crossing Poland [18/08/2023]

The case also has political sensitivities for Warsaw, where officials have not publicly acknowledged that 12 Ukrainian refugees are among those in custody, anxious to avoid the backlash Russia likely intended. Others arrested include one Russian and three citizens of Belarus. In interviews, officials emphasized that while most of the Ukrainian suspects were from eastern provinces traditionally more aligned with Moscow, they appear to have been motivated more by money than ideology.

The postings used to lure potential recruits were scattered among job offers, housing tips and internet scams that litter the Telegram channels frequented by refugee groups in Poland, officials said. They promised pay ranging from a few dollars for painting a graffiti-like message to $12 for hanging a poster, said the ABW investigator. There were fliers and banners that said, “POLAND ≠ UKRAINE,” “NATO GO HOME” and “DO NOT BE BIDEN,” according to information provided by the ABW.

DO NOT BE BIDEN! 😄

NYT - The Smartphone Game That Ukrainian Soldiers Play on the Front Line [21/08/2023]

“Why would we play World of Tanks when it’s right here?” one soldier asked, referring to the real war. Instead they play FIFA, another soldier added, a nod to a popular soccer video game.

Some important front line investigating there from NYT… what’s the Ukrainian army’s gaming situation??

NAFOs malding that Russia… built a school.

I felt sick to my stomach after listening to the school principal brag about the school providing additional education and some new incredible activity clubs that Mariupol didn’t have before for free.

Yeah, how horrible of them. That’s absolutely evil!

What the heck does it even means? Additional endogcrination?

endogcrination

The $&@# build a school on top of the building they destroyed!

Because they’re just supposed to leave an empty lot there?

How the hell it is a exaggeration? Misunderstanding my ass. There are other pollutants than tritium and the people especially workers in Japan also protested against this. Screw those who would apologize for this action.

lmao Marjorie Taylor Greene showing off Hunter Biden porn in Congress. She censored it though which is lame.

Pskov was just attacked by drones, possibly coming from Estonia or Latvia.

Belarus claims Poland violated its airspace. Probably won’t cause anything, but it sure is fun having potentially WW3 starting events every couple months.

Anyone have a link to Zelenskyy admitting he was told that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO but they’d publicly keep acting like it’s coming?

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🚨🚨 Coup underway in Gabon and looks like it has mostly succeeded

Instability in Gabon even more damaging to French imperialism than Niger in a way. Niger has been battling instability for decades due to constant military shenanigans and jihadists swooping in and out. Gabon on the other hand has been extraordinarily stable under the military dictatorship of French lapdogs Omar Bongo and Ali Bongo. Omar Bongo was president for 42 years and did nothing but enrich himself, his friends and French companies. Infant mortality is shockingly high for example, while the oil boom money was used for a 800m presidential palace and mansions in the French countryside. When he died in 2009, power was transferred to his equally corrupt son Ali Bongo. The seeds of discontent were already planted in 2016, when Ali Bongo was reelected in a hilariously corrupt election and there were large protests across the country, which ended after a violent crackdown by the military. Good day for us Hexbears, an L for France is a W for humanity

NYT “Matter of Opinion” podcast:

Is it time to negotiate with Putin?
We’re past the fairy tale stage of the war in Ukraine. How does it end?

lmao at least they admit it’s been a fairy tale this whole time.

Russia is making gains near Kupiansk. It seems to me that the goal is to hold the line in the south and try and make a push for the Oskil-Donets confluence just a few miles northwest of Donetsk oblast. I think it would put them a good position to eventually take the rest of the Donetsk oblast next year. It doesn’t seem possible to make all those gains this month, but it’ll interesting to see if the Ukrainians in the south or the Russians in the north gain more land.

Seems like the positive Ukrainian momentum that started a few days ago in Zaporozhye has stalled again. They’re wedged in the low ground between Robotyne and Verbove, and are pretty much surrounded by Russians on the high ground by three sides. Ukrainians have around a month to reach Tokmak now, rain season will start in October, which makes larger mechanised assaults way more difficult. I wonder if Russia has any plan for offensive operations soon, or maybe they will continue absorbing the pressure until next summer.

first

US military promises ‘hellscape’ of drone swarming in future China war

What better place than a National Defense Industrial Association confab to announce a new program in which “multiple thousands” of drones will be unleashed across land, sea, and sky “to counter the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army’s] mass with mass of our own, but ours will be harder to plan for, harder to hit and harder to beat.”

It rings a bit like science fiction but to a roomful of defense executives, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks’ words on Monday must have been music to their ears. A lot of dollar signs. Especially when Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, joined in and told the NDIA “Emerging Technologies for Defense” audience that there could be as many 1,000 drones deployed in 24 hours — “Here’s a metric for me: 1,000 targets for 24 hours.”

At which point Hicks signaled that might be just the baseline. “We’ll also aim to replicate and inculcate how we will achieve that goal, so we can scale whatever’s relevant in the future again and again and again. Easier said than done? You bet. But we’re going to do it,” she said.

Welcome to the second era of the drone war, the first being during the U.S. Global War on Terror, where drones like the MQ Reaper were primarily used for surveillance and manhunting. It was billed as an “evolution” in targeted conflict in which the government promised “cleaner” war with fewer civilian deaths and American boots on the ground. Today’s era is about “meshing” both surveillance and lethal action with a pronouncement of drones, all shapes and sizes, and not just the big expensive ones. This is being tested and improved everyday with tens of thousands of drones on both sides in Ukraine and now the Pentagon is promising the next level of that for its coming war with China.

“While both combatants entered the war with drones, there has been a Cambrian explosion in missions and types of drones over the past 18 months,” gushed retired Australian army major general Mick Ryan in an article on Monday. “Just as the Cambrian period saw the most intense period of evolution in history, so too has the Ukraine War spawned a rapid evolution in these machines.”

Ryan says the swarming of drones across the battlespace has resulted in “an extraordinary increase in the visibility of events on and beyond the battlefield.” This allows for “the speed of decision and action” and “the precision of engagements on the battlefield, as well as against strategic targets.” He also notes while Ukraine has been credited with advancing its drone technology more rapidly, its still losing in the ballpark of 10,000 UAVs a month.

But the U.S. not only wants to replicate this (the project is literally called “Replicator”) for a future war, but it welcomes the challenge of ramping up an industrial base that is already struggling to fulfill orders to send promised U.S. weapons to Ukraine for its current war.

To succeed in this, Hicks said the initiative has the full backing of the Secretary of the Defense and Defense Innovation Unit. It will require working with “non-traditional and traditional defense companies,” and that Congress “has the opportunity to be a key enabler in getting capabilities to the warfighter at speed and scale.” Read: give us more money and less red tape.

Getting Congress on board won’t be difficult. First, point out the amazing opportunities of drone swarms, just like major general Ryan did in his op-ed. Next, explain, like Hicks does, that China is gaining on us. It’s most important asset is “mass” she said. “More ships. More missiles. More people.” The DoD must snap into action to challenge that.

“We must ensure the PRC [People’s Republic of China] leadership wakes up every day, considers the risks of aggression, and concludes, ‘today is not the day’ – and not just today, but every day, between now and 2027, now and 2035, now and 2049, and beyond,” she said.

Then, insure that their friends in the defense industry will be happy as most of the top five contractors have been seeding pieces of every major project in their districts for years, not to mention the $33 million in campaign contributions (in the 2022 cycle alone).

absolutely deranged