Image is of container ships waiting outside the canal. While there is usually some number of ships waiting for passage, the number has increased significantly lately.
In order to move ships through the Panama Canal, water is needed to fill the locks. The water comes from freshwater lakes, which are replenished by rainfall. This rainfall hasn’t been coming, and Lake Gatun, the largest one, is at near record low levels.
Hundreds of ships are now in a maritime traffic jam, unable to cross the canal quickly. Panama is attempting to conserve water and have reduced the number of transits by 20% per day, among other measures. The Canal’s adminstrators have warned that these drought conditions will remain for at least 10 months.
It is unlikely that global supply chains will be catastrophically affected, at least this year. Costs may increase for consumers in the coming months, especially for Christmas, but by and large goods will continue to flow, around South America if need be. Nonetheless, projecting trends over the coming years and decades, you can imagine how this is yet another nudge by climate change towards dramatic economic, environmental, and political impacts on the world at large. It also might prompt discussions inside various governments about nearshoring, and the general vulnerability of global supply chains - especially as the United States tries, bafflingly, to go to war with China.
After some discussion in the last megathread about building knowledge of geopolitics, some of us thought it might be an interesting idea to have a Country of the Week - essentially, I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. More detail in this comment.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
Links and Stuff
The bulletins site is down.
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can.
Resources For Understanding The War
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week’s discussion post.
Russia has successfully launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles from Su-34s, no longer requiring the use of MiG-31 platforms:
The Russian Air Force has for the first time employed Su-34 strike fighters to launch ballistic missiles, which was a previously unknown capability that could transform the way the aircraft are used. This development follows a reported surge in production of the missile in question, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, which from late 2017 was integrated onto modified MiG-31 interceptors which were designated MiG-31K and, for later variants, MiG-31I. While only approximately 30-35 MiG-31K/Is are currently in service, however, the Su-34 is the most widely fielded fighter class in the Russian Air Force with over 120 having entered service. The discrepancy in numbers is further exacerbated by the fact that the Su-34 requires significantly less maintenance and has higher availability rates and lower operational costs than the MiG-31, which makes it an optimal aircraft to deploy Kinzhal missiles. The integration of the Kinzhal onto the Su-34 has significant implications across multiple theatres where the aircraft are deployed, from the Arctic and Far East to the Ukrainian and Syrian theatres. The Su-34 is the longest ranged tactical combat jet in service anywhere in the world, and second only to the MiG-31 for the position of the world’s largest. As a much more modern aircraft with a more efficient design it can carry much heavier payloads over longer distances.
continued:
Russian state media outlets notably mistakenly initially reported that it was the lighter Su-35 fighter which had been used to carry the Kinzhal missile, while also mislabelling pictures of the Su-34 as ‘Su-35.’ The Su-35’s design as an air superiority fighter, and its much lower carrying capacity and range and higher cost than the Su-34, raised questions from the outset regarding the plausibility of these reports. A defence official speaking anonymously reported on September 4 regarding the first Kinzhal missile strike from a Su-34: "The Su-34 fighter jet used the Kinzhal hypersonic missile in the special military operation. The first crew who successfully accomplished such a task will receive state awards.” Kinzhal missiles have been employed extensively in the Ukrainian theatre, with one of their most significant achievements being the reported destruction of newly delivered Patriot missile batteries in the Ukrainian capital Kiev in May when fired from MiG-31K strike fighters. The missiles are highly manoeuvrable and difficult to track, which combined with their terminal speeds approaching Mach 9 makes them very difficult to intercept. The can carry a variety of warhead types, and are produced on the same production lines as 9M723 missiles for the Iskander-M ground based system which have seen productive capacity increase manifold over the past year. The unique capabilities of Russian air launched cruise and ballistic missiles integrated onto its fighters had provided a key means of compensating for shortcomings elsewhere in its defence sector such as the serious delays faced in fielding stealth fighters when compared to rival Chinese and American programs.
BREAKING: New US election polling data shows run away victory for surprise candidate
My workplace is having a reading contest this month, so pretty great reason to crack open some books again. Started reading A People’s History of the United States, read Socialism: Utopian and Scientific and also The Long Walk to Freedom. Mandela’s autobiography really slaps hard on par with Blackshirts and Reds.
HR doesn’t like me discussing socialist theory probably because I’m objectively right and 95% of the workplace agrees with me, lmao
America deserved 9/11
Morocco’s deadliest earthquake in decades claims more than 1,000 lives
Morocco’s geophysical center reported that the earthquake occurred in the Ighil region of the High Atlas mountains, reporting a magnitude of 7.2. The US Geological Survey reported that a 6.8-magnitude quake struck a mountainous area 72 kilometers (45 miles) southwest of tourist hotspot Marrakesh at 11:11 pm (2211 GMT) on Friday.
The World Health Organization said the earthquake affected more than 300,000 people in Marrakesh and its suburbs. Updated Interior Ministry figures on Saturday showed the quake claimed the lives of at least 1,037 people, the vast majority in al-Haouz, the epicenter and Taroudant provinces. Another 1,204 people were injured, including 721 in critical condition, the Ministry added.
Western media is reporting that Ukraine has breached the first and presumably hardest line of defense near Rabotino/Robotyne and that they are now “only 20 kilometres from Tokmak”. It is being presented as a major victory.
Lol… Now the same people who had a “military analyst” write a piece about how this means that Ukraine is winning are quoting the US government-affiliated organisation ISW for saying that maybe they didn’t actually break through the line but they’re really, really close.
This back and forth has been going on for at least a week.
I still don’t know what they’re talking about. The ownership of Robotyne has shifted back and forth over the last couple weeks, for sure, and Ukraine needs control of it to advance, but it isn’t on the first defensive line, it’s several kilometers in front of it.
feels like the media has zero understanding of the situation so they hear “Ukraine takes control of key village on front” from their government sources, say “Oh, they must have breached the first line of defense that those Russian propagandists have been talking about so smugly! Time to report it!” and then a day later, Russian counterattacks back into Robotyne and Ukraine no longer controls it, and then a week later Ukraine gets control of it again, and then the Ukrainian government once again says “Ukraine takes control of key village on front” and then they’re like “Holy moly, look at the progress! Two key villages in this short (lol) time! They must be barrelling past the first line of defense and be close to Tokmak!”, when in reality the front has shifted like five kilometers (in this area) maximum over three months and Ukraine’s taken something like 60,000 casualties for their trouble
I highly doubt any journalist cares, more than likely a lot of the news outlets have sent their team to Kiev where they stay in some hotel and read the messages by the ukranian ministry of defense and then report this back, maybe they’ll don their little helmet and flak vest outfit and pretend they are near the warzone like that one BBC guy almost crawling on the ground while people were just walking past him.
Any journalist in Ukraine has been outright told they cannot report the truth. Always remember than when reading their articles.
They are knowingly participating in propaganda. The truth means nothing to these people.
What happened is, western media have redefined the 'first line" to mean any defences in front of the real first line, which is the surovikin line. Some genius in the newsroom came up with this dumb idea and libs at frothing at the mouth to say “WE BROKE THE FIRST LINE!”. Shades of Spinal Tap; this one goes to 11.
New emote used in context 
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/alI29
More cope about western vehicles getting owned by mines in a buisness insider article by some dipshit called Ryan Pickelhead
Some of Ukraine’s Western-made vehicles are getting ‘killed’ on the battlefield, but it’s not as much of a win for Russia’s forces as it was. By Ryan Pickrell
It’s the usual spiel about superior western technology, interior slavic brainpan regarding human life with as much value as blades of grass because Russians grow like weeds, cope over the fact western vehicles keep getting knocked out of service doesn’t actually mean they’re destroyed
Honestly reminds me of the Nazi Kraut cope where their superior nazi tanks kept getting knocked out - or broke down because they can’t build tanks for shit - and had to get hauled back to repair facilities with it getting to a point there were more shit needed to be repaired than they could actually field towards the end of the war. like @[email protected] has mentioned priorly, your fancy lad tanks ain’t shit if it costs too much to field.
Just a thought completely unrelated to any current news: Western European nations maintains absurd terminologies such as “third generation immigrant” as a way of denying that they have gained domestic ethnic minorities and casting these minorities as alien.
Honestly I don’t mind
I’ve never wanted to identify with the Canadian identity or felt any patriotism anyways
It’s because scandinavians need a term for “brown person” but saying that makes it obvious that they’re almost always being fashy when speaking of brown people.
An earthquake of magnitude 6.8 shakes Morocco and leaves dozens dead. The quake occurred 72 kilometers from the city of Marrakesh and was also felt in Rabat, the capital.
Comrade Kim rode the DPRK armored train to Vladivostok yesterday and Putin arrived by plane last night.
Challenger tanks actually getting destroyed in a peer war is 9/11 for small business owning UK uncles who think that the British military is invincible because they beat the Americans in a war game 3 or 4 years ago
Question for newsheads who know a bit more about the military side of things. What’s the rationale from a NAFO/Ukrainian perspective for the western countries providing only limited amounts of arms IV dripped to Ukraine? Obviously outside this perspective it’s rather obvious, that Ukraine is the territory of a proxy war between NATO and Russia. And I imagine that there are voices on the pro-Ukraine side who are angry at the NATO (mostly US) strategy of giving Ukrainians just enough to keep running into mines without surrendering.
To me it seems like there should be some kind of internal logic that keeps the US politicians (nevermind military leaders) from going full hog into supplying more of what they have. Is it simply that they don’t think they can get the political support from Congress? When has that stopped them before? Is it that the military industrial complex thinks it can make more profit if a war is dragged out? Overall what drives this particular method?
okay recent meeting with Zyuganov has Putin considering pressing the Socialism with Chinese Characteristics button.
I know that its probably lip service but let me be a bit delusional for my own sanity
Statement from the Cuban ministry of foreign affairs about cuban mercenaries in ukraine:
The Ministry of the Interior has detected and it is working to neutralize and dismantle a human trafficking network that operates from Russia in order to incorporate Cuban citizens living there and even some living in Cuba, into the military forces that participate in military operations in Ukraine. Attempts of this nature have been neutralized and criminal proceedings have been initiated against those involved in these activities.
Think this is Wagner? Or something else?
I wonder if this will harm relations between Cuba and Russia.
Cuba’s enemies are promoting distorted information that seeks to tarnish the country’s image and present it as an accomplice to these actactions that we firmly reject.
Also, who are they referring to when they say “Cuba’s enemies” here? This must have been caused by something specific being spread around.
I’d think generally the west, Cuba might think that the USA could use something like “Cuba is sending their army to Ukraine to fight for Russia” to either force more sanctions or even try an invasion and they want to get ahead of this.
Cuba has plenty to lose by doing like Syria and the DPRK and fully backing Russia in this conflict, not the least of which is there diplomatic reputation but also whatever volume of trade they’re still able to have with, say, the EU and the west
I mean, I don’t really want them to fully back Russia, their statement and position on the war was one of the best.
Russia has never asked any country to support it though, they simply ask the countries to stay neutral and not participate in sanctions. If you participate in the sanctions, then you’re an “unfriendly country”. There wasn’t any “you’re either with us or against us” moment like the Western countries are doing with regards to supporting Ukraine.
So Guatemala actually succeeded in getting a center- leftist (which is as radical as our candidates ever get like Arbenz) elected and our corrupt America worshipping congress has pulled the CIA playbook of crying voter fraud and delegitimizing the party. Surprisingly, the US has sanctioned one of the prosecutors pulling this bullshit. The supreme court is packed with right-wing Evangelicals pleasing their gringo masters, so we’ll see if this election victory goes anywhere.
Bolivia, Ecuador, and Honduras under Zelaya should have been lessons that a more militant approach is absolutely necessary because the right-wing will pull out everything to secure their dominance.
Edit: Should add that he’s like that dumbass Boric in Chile by badmouthing Nicaragua and Venezuela, also pulling the “Russia bad” card and suspending deals with them. This could be why the US is willing to support him. He’s promising some stuff that’s radical by our standards but unfortunately lacking the teeth that a country like Honduras is currently offering.
China dropped the mortgage down payment minimum (usually 40% to 30%) to 20% and caused a huge uptick in home sales in Shanghai and Beijing.
Home sales in two of China’s biggest cities soared in the past two days following mortgage relaxations, an early sign that government efforts to cushion a record housing slowdown is helping.
From here: https://archive.ph/3kCoZ
Not sure if this will be repeated in the Teir 2 and below cities, and it doesn’t do anything to unwind much of the mess created by China’s property market, where a significant amount of wealth is tied up in real estate rather than “real” sectors of the economy, but I guess it’s a start.
Will this not just make the housing market worse? Allowing prices to continue to climb while saddling people with even more debt?
I think they’re focusing on the “let’s make sure our largest property developers don’t collapse and take down the rest of the economy with them” part first, then trying to reform later. China has too much of its assets tied up in real estate, where a massive drop in the value of the real estate market would bring down a lot of unrelated firms who have many of their assets tied up in teal estate.
I agree this in the long run might make things worse, but I imagine it’s a short term measure to buy time more than anything else. Highly recommend the translation of Wen Tiejun (great Chinese economist) one of our comrades made in the last news mega to go over this: https://hexbear.net/comment/3867398
It just seems like another bandaid to push the problem forward into the future. Eventually you have to deal with it, and clearly the private real estate market just wants to produce speculation bubbles and drive the price of housing to unaffordable levels.
Thanks for the reminder to read that comment, I saved it but forgot to back to read it. I’ll give it a read soon.
Yeah it’s been a long time coming. There’s been rumblings of this since what, 2020 when Evergrande had that liquidity scare? Sooner or later there’s got to be a long term plan to deflate the bubble that involves drastic action, something the Party as of late seems loth to do.
I mean very very slow on average deflation is happening rn and for the last year or smth. But mainly in tier 2 and bellow cities. Prices are falling overall compared to 2 years ago, in a lot of cities by 15-20%
The problem with the new policy is that it is merely scratching an itch but not really solving the crisis at the fundamental level. The new policy that introduces an exemption for down-payment for first-time homebuyer applies only if you do not already own a property in that particular city. But because the housing price has been driven up so much by speculators, even a discount from down-payment doesn’t mean much for your average wage earners who wish to own their own houses in Tier 1 cities. On the contrary, rich people who from Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities, would now benefit from investing in properties in Tier 1 cities so long as they do not already own a property there, so at the end of the day it’s just a different bunch of landlords who get to take advantage of the new policy.
It’s very hard to get out of the current bubble, because as I had posted in the previous thread (thanks to @[email protected] for linking the post), Wen Tiejun pointed out that this is not so much a real estate crisis but a combination of triple threat from the real estate bubble, the financial bubble and the debt bubble that stemmed from the local governments being forced to enclose and sell off lands to drive GDP up.
So you cannot focus merely on the real estate front, because that’s not even remotely approaching the root of the problem - you also have to seriously reform the financial sector and the financing structures at the local government level. (There are two more parts to the series, the 2nd focuses on what policies can be taken to mitigate the crisis, and the 3rd focuses on a longer history of how rural land development in China was transformed into a real estate bubble in response to the financial crisis in the US, the problem goes way back - I will find time to translate them soon but keep in mind that even a 15 min video had me spending several hours on translation and editing, it was harder than I thought when I started).
Edit to add: according to some rough calculations I’ve seen on the internet, China currently already has enough housing capacity for 6 trillion people, with a population of only 1.4 trillion! And yet this has barely slowed down the construction projects especially in the lower tier cities, because so much capital has been over-invested in the sector that you simply cannot stop the constructions without severely affecting the national economy. On the other hand, the situation is made worse by speculators driving up prices while wage earners could hardly afford them.
Interesting, thanks for the additional info and for the work in translating that video. I just read it. I’d be really interested to see what he says in part 2.
The way real estate has been used to drive up gdp globally, especially in the core countries, seems like a terrible problem no one seems able to deal with. Does China include impuded rent in their GDP calculation?
Isn’t a solution to twist the construction industry towards infrastructure, towards foreign labour, or towards high-labour boutique construction?
China currently already has enough housing capacity for 6 trillion people, with a population of only 1.4 trillion!
I’m assuming you meant billion, right?
One Trillion Americans
Property prices, especially Tier 2 and bellow cities are seeing sustained drops on average. So this is an accompanying measure and not the start. The CPC has been slowly deflating and deleveraging their property market for 1-2 years now (with ups and downs and regional differences) but it is happening and it is intentional even if it barely has moved the needle in a lot of places. If anything home sales are still static or lower now because often people are expecting the prices to drop further so they are holding on. So this measure is probably a way to push some to buy now
Also general the “meat” of China’s future RE market is not in the 200 million who live in the richest cities or the 400 million who’ve reached urban middle class but the next 1 billion who are still climbing the development ladder .So income growth vs RE prices in 3rd tier and below is very important and its showing positive trends and results, even if first tier housing prices ,speculation and bubbles may persist and go back and forth for years
Also the numbers about Chinese GDP being 30% real estate etc are western third party guestimates and include any activity remotely related or including real estate. Its a big issue but not at that scale. Government figures put it closer to just being some 5-6 % points higher than western countries
