12mn new EVs? With 92mn cars sold world wide each year, that is a huge number for the oil companies to swallow. It will bring oil prices down, tanking production outside OPEC due to costs of production. That will be a hard economic blow against the oil producing nations.
While they are at it, they are clearing a geoplitical energy dependance on foreign nations. Brilliant move. EU tries to follow with fit for 55, but will it be enough? Being oil dependent, either as buyer or seller, will end up sitting with the short straw unless acted upon now.
The EU has emissions regulation in place forcing 37.5% EVs starting next year(so in a couple days). If that survives the current onslaught of manufacturers and the oil industry, then the EU is probably going to be fine.
However looking at what the US did to Venezuela, Iran and Russia in terms of oil exports, I am not sure that OPEC production is save.
Well, we better be, because if the demand for oil isn’t high enough to keep the oil infrastructure up and running, the flip will be sudden, swift and without pardon.
Norway is already at 90+% of new cars EV. How long will the gas stations be able to survive? On the day the last one dies, I want to be driving an electric car.
How interesting. And it seems it has already begun:
According to forecasts by Commodity Insights, refinery utilization rates will drop from around 84% in 2024 to 81% in 2027 as refiners adjust to a weaker margin environment, accelerating closures through 2029-2030.
Close to 1 million b/d could be shuttered over 2029-2030, according to Commodity Insights forecasts, more than double the 473,000 b/d after the financial crisis (2007-2009) and well above the 656,000 b/d closed due to Covid-19 pressures (2019-2021).
Germany and France, meanwhile, are another million electric cars not favouring the oil companies. Just China and Europe and already that is 15% of world demand for gas cars.
Heavy transport and farming will take longer, but the push for electrification in transport is real.
12mn new EVs? With 92mn cars sold world wide each year, that is a huge number for the oil companies to swallow. It will bring oil prices down, tanking production outside OPEC due to costs of production. That will be a hard economic blow against the oil producing nations.
While they are at it, they are clearing a geoplitical energy dependance on foreign nations. Brilliant move. EU tries to follow with fit for 55, but will it be enough? Being oil dependent, either as buyer or seller, will end up sitting with the short straw unless acted upon now.
The EU has emissions regulation in place forcing 37.5% EVs starting next year(so in a couple days). If that survives the current onslaught of manufacturers and the oil industry, then the EU is probably going to be fine.
However looking at what the US did to Venezuela, Iran and Russia in terms of oil exports, I am not sure that OPEC production is save.
Well, we better be, because if the demand for oil isn’t high enough to keep the oil infrastructure up and running, the flip will be sudden, swift and without pardon. Norway is already at 90+% of new cars EV. How long will the gas stations be able to survive? On the day the last one dies, I want to be driving an electric car.
The first big thing to go will be refineries. They can only lower production by 20% of capacity. The number of refineries is rather low.
How interesting. And it seems it has already begun:
Germany and France, meanwhile, are another million electric cars not favouring the oil companies. Just China and Europe and already that is 15% of world demand for gas cars.
Heavy transport and farming will take longer, but the push for electrification in transport is real.