I think it highly unlikely a drone just happened to fall out of the sky and hit the sarcophagus. The ones that fall out of the sky rarely hit anything. Ukraine is vast.
I think it also incredibly unlikely that this is a false flag from the Ukrainians. Poland already said in the early days that any nuclear fallout that enters their territory from the Zaporizhzhia plant when there was concerns about an act of terror from the Russians would be considered an act of war and that they would trigger article 5 based on it.
Ukraine could have false flagged the shit out of that to drag NATO in and chose not to so this is definitely Russian.
Everyday close to third of shahed drones get lost due to e-warfare, with more than hundred of these drones used every day it is probable that one of those that was intended for Kyiv ended up in Chernobyl.
The chances of a drone “losing itself” and “just hitting” something like that are zero. Even if it magically happened somehow, it’s still Russia’s fault for waging war on a neighbor, and they would deserve 100% of the response.
But to be fair,Tyou shouldn’t count all of Ukraine’s territory, but the Russian controlled ground and the front line plus maybe 50km or so deep into Ukraine’s territory.
I did consider that, but many (most maybe?) of the Shaheds would be launched from well behind the front lines so would be traveling over occupied Ukraine was my thinking. I have no idea on the actual stats there.
Wait so you mean I’m still on the hook if I launch a bunch of ordinance harmlessly at my neighbor’s porch, but I accidentally hit their child’s bedroom? Well shit.
I like to imagine that it was an accident. What kind of next level stupidity does it take to do this intentionally? Well, humanity is known for reaching absolutely epic heights in stupidity, so I guess it’s still possible.
Even if it was intentional nothing will happen. First, it’s really fucking massive, and 50 kilo of tnt that drones are equipped with won’t do anything. Second, there is old confinement underneath the newer one which is massive as well and needed like half a million cubic meters of concrete. So you are as safe as you can be and no scary radiation will leak from there. Third, personally I expect russians to use tactical nuke on either chernobyl or zaporizzha this year (expected them to do it earlier to be honest), now with full support from US they will feel a lot more confident.
The fact that there is doubt whether or not it was even intentional is itself very concerning. None of us would really struggle to believe they might do that deliberately, the only question is whether or not they did do it deliberately.
Not really scary, probably wasn’t even intentional and shitty drone just lost itself.
I think it highly unlikely a drone just happened to fall out of the sky and hit the sarcophagus. The ones that fall out of the sky rarely hit anything. Ukraine is vast.
I think it also incredibly unlikely that this is a false flag from the Ukrainians. Poland already said in the early days that any nuclear fallout that enters their territory from the Zaporizhzhia plant when there was concerns about an act of terror from the Russians would be considered an act of war and that they would trigger article 5 based on it.
Ukraine could have false flagged the shit out of that to drag NATO in and chose not to so this is definitely Russian.
Everyday close to third of shahed drones get lost due to e-warfare, with more than hundred of these drones used every day it is probable that one of those that was intended for Kyiv ended up in Chernobyl.
By definition they hit something, it’s just not considered important when said something is a patch of grass or a medium sized rock.
The chances of a drone “losing itself” and “just hitting” something like that are zero. Even if it magically happened somehow, it’s still Russia’s fault for waging war on a neighbor, and they would deserve 100% of the response.
I mean… not 0 but pretty damn close to it (semantics, I know)
I just did the numbers for shits and giggles.
Ukraine is 635,000 square kilometres = 653 billion square metres. The “New Safe” that was hit is roughly 43000 square metres.
To randomly hit it (not realistic I know, but it gives an interesting result) as I understand it would be just shy of 1 in 15 million.
But to be fair,Tyou shouldn’t count all of Ukraine’s territory, but the Russian controlled ground and the front line plus maybe 50km or so deep into Ukraine’s territory.
I did consider that, but many (most maybe?) of the Shaheds would be launched from well behind the front lines so would be traveling over occupied Ukraine was my thinking. I have no idea on the actual stats there.
To be fair you should count Poland territory too, since apparently drones have been flying and crashing in there too.
So you’re telling me there is a chance
Wait so you mean I’m still on the hook if I launch a bunch of ordinance harmlessly at my neighbor’s porch, but I accidentally hit their child’s bedroom? Well shit.
Considering E-warfare; and drones designated to continue on their already prescribed path - it isn’t that unlikely; if there was fighting in the area…
The more likely option is terrible communication I’d wager
I like to imagine that it was an accident. What kind of next level stupidity does it take to do this intentionally? Well, humanity is known for reaching absolutely epic heights in stupidity, so I guess it’s still possible.
Could it really be called stupidity, if they know nothing of consequence will happen because of it? Because I doubt there will be any.
With that knowledge and assuming it wasn’t intentional, it is imo closer to indifference than stupidity.
Even if it was intentional nothing will happen. First, it’s really fucking massive, and 50 kilo of tnt that drones are equipped with won’t do anything. Second, there is old confinement underneath the newer one which is massive as well and needed like half a million cubic meters of concrete. So you are as safe as you can be and no scary radiation will leak from there. Third, personally I expect russians to use tactical nuke on either chernobyl or zaporizzha this year (expected them to do it earlier to be honest), now with full support from US they will feel a lot more confident.
I wish there was a RemindMe! function on Lemmy. I guess I’ll just save this and come back to it when the sirens go off.
The fact that there is doubt whether or not it was even intentional is itself very concerning. None of us would really struggle to believe they might do that deliberately, the only question is whether or not they did do it deliberately.