cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/32330798
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“China is supporting Russia’s efforts. China is building up its armed forces, including its navy, at a rapid pace," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters as he wrapped up his visit to the Japanese navy port of Yokosuka. “We cannot be naive, and we really have to work together, assess what is happening.”
Rutte said NATO is worried about China’s military exercises near Taiwan and “we follow them very closely.”
Japan considers China as a threat in the region and has in recent years accelerated military buildup, including preparing to acquire strikeback capability with long-range cruise missiles.
Japan, in addition to the United States, has expanded its defense ties with other friendly nations in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, as well as NATO, saying Russia’s war on Ukraine underscores that security risks in Europe and Asia are inseparable.
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I’ve understood that Taiwan has many missiles aimed at China. Are they not significant enough in power/number to be enough of a deterrant against China?
Even if they are, China’s military buildup seems squarely aimed at an invasion of Taiwan. China would just need to ramp up it’s missile defenses to counter that deterrent.
Nation leaders often miscalculate the risk/reward of going to war. Look at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for an obvious example. Even if Taiwanese missiles would heavily impact China, that doesn’t mean they’ll understand that. They may also figure that China will be able to deal with it and still come out on top (and they might be right).
Almost every war game and analyst predicts the invasion starting with a huge barrage of missiles from China. The first strikes would be designed to cripple Taiwan’s ability to defend itself/retaliate. Many of the missiles aimed at China would be destroyed before being launched.
In war games, it’s assumed that the US will be at war with China along with a coalition of Pacific nations assisting. Even with all this support, Taiwan is defended, but only barely. The current administration is focused inward to the point of being much less likely to assist Taiwan or, at least assist much less than war games assume. China may feel pressured to strike during the current administration so Taiwan doesn’t have has much help.