It’s bad and 100% caused by tariffs but a quirk in the way GDP is measured needs to be considered when interpreting this number- imports essentially as negative GDP, so when everyone scrambled to import everything before the tariffs went into effect it made GDP go really low. The idea is that when you sell the imported item that is counted as positive GDP so selling an imported item is basically GDP neutral, but a lot of this stuff hasn’t been sold yet. That said, it’s still a bad sign and still 100% caused by tariffs. It’s just not immediately what it looks like.
It’s bad and 100% caused by tariffs but a quirk in the way GDP is measured needs to be considered when interpreting this number- imports essentially as negative GDP, so when everyone scrambled to import everything before the tariffs went into effect it made GDP go really low. The idea is that when you sell the imported item that is counted as positive GDP so selling an imported item is basically GDP neutral, but a lot of this stuff hasn’t been sold yet. That said, it’s still a bad sign and still 100% caused by tariffs. It’s just not immediately what it looks like.