Starmer (44%) vs Farage (29%)
Starmer (36%) vs Badenoch (25%)
Starmer (27%) vs Davey (25%)
Davey (41%) vs Farage (27%)
Davey (33%) vs Badenoch (21%)
Badenoch (29%) vs Farage (25%)
Starmer (44%) vs Farage (29%)
Starmer (36%) vs Badenoch (25%)
Starmer (27%) vs Davey (25%)
Davey (41%) vs Farage (27%)
Davey (33%) vs Badenoch (21%)
Badenoch (29%) vs Farage (25%)
For all the talk of a Reform surge, this has to strongly indicate that they’re near their peak. For a comparable datapoint from history, Labour held a polling lead from 2010 to mid 2015 over the Conservatives, but Milliband never out-polled Cameron on “best PM” questions, Cameron then of course went on to win the 2015 GE.
if you look at the data from the elections earlier this month, it seems like the real danger is that many labor voters have simply stopped voting
They’re not voting for other parties. They’ve simply stopped showing up to polls at all.
That’s how it played out in the US. More than 10 million less voters in '24 than '20. Political fatigue is insidious
This is therefore the time for the Greens to capitalise and try and capture the apathetic by pushing for proportional representation. Unfortunately, the English Greens don’t seem to have the same competence as the Scottish Greens, so them actually managing to do so is slim :/