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What does that look like to you? The US’s capacity for imperialist projection is currently retracting rather quickly. Is that collapse? Does it need to be totally incapable of anything other than local projection?
Or is this internal? Truly dramatic political change? Revolution? An end to the formal entity The United States of America? Food systems failure?
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Collapse takes decades. It’s happening now and has been since 9/11.
if not since 9/11 then since Reagan, which shows how long it has taken.
Reagan did shit that was easily reversible but never got reversed
W committed us to multiple wars costing trillions of dollars and making us even more enemies than we already had
they both wrecked the economy and country in their own special way.
Why particularly 9/11?
Clearly defined shift in foreign policy that also began hollowing out our economy in earnest, very easy to point to as a tipping point
but those $600 in bush bucks was nice, just had to let them loot everything else
That’s not a bad date to pin it at. Reminds me of how there’s multiple dates that historians place the end of the Roman Empire at
Gotta define collapse.
The domestic system of governance? Already collapsing.
The ability of the state to project military power? A decade or two for most of the world, an extra decade for South America.
A formal entity called the United States with structure derived from its constitution? Could be a thousand years.
A formal entity called the United States with structure derived from its constitution? Could be a thousand years.
My pet theory is that the US will eventually go the way of the HRE. Just like there was an emperor, there’s going to be a president in Washington DC for centuries to come. He’s going to be a very important person who’ll have soldiers in fancy uniforms saluting him, but the centre of real political power will have moved somewhere else.
And I just thought about Rome again
Like boardrooms?
It already has! It was always there!
Sooner than you’d think, longer than you’d expect
If collapse is defined as swathes of the country either being abandoned or placed under indefinite martial law and if current trends in terms of housing, education, health, wages, pollution, infrastructure and climate change continue
Then around 20-25 years, 10-15 years if the worse case scenarios for climate change become reality
if the worse case scenarios for climate change become reality
essentially guaranteed at this point
at least 10 minutes idk
Long enough to outlast your youth and the best years of your life, if you still are in the prime of it.
The rest of the world will have to collapse before the USA does.
You must have a very limited imagination
Why?
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depends on what you mean by “collapse.” i think we’re probably going to see a constitutional amendment that essentially declaws most or all of the non-military powers of the federal government in the next 50 years. i think we’re already seeing the mass social murder of the poor, and i believe it will escalate without stopping as long as it doesn’t touch the middle class.
Which mass social murder?
2025
I hope meltwater pulse 3C happens so europe gets fugged too
Not in my lifetime (genX) nor my kids lifetime.
Decline is happening but will take a while for collapse.
Going based on pure vibes and ass-pulling:
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Irreversible decline: We are here.
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“The sick man of [continent]”: By 2050s.
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Losing most imperial possessions: A few decades after “The sick man of [continent]”
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Minor Balkinization (secessionist movements): ~2070s
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Major Balkinization (rump state surrounded by successor republics): 2100-2110s
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Formal end of these United States of America: The rump state could easily truck along for centuries, especially if one of the successor republics manages to conquer the rump state and retroactively claims itself as a continuation of the rump state.
My vibes-based analysis is unable to incorporate climate change into its analysis, but climate change will obviously speed up the timeline.
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us federal government says significant chances of societal collapse due to climate change in certain areas plus civil unrest by mid 2030-2040, so ill say if its going to happen any time soon, itd be then
Based on?
Idr, was a report posted here at some point from the department of homeland security I believe
That’s just how they keep convincing congress to give them unlimited funding.
That report was covered by Beau of the Fifth Column if that means anything to anyone reading this thread.
I remember back in 2015-16 when a report was released by Langley that basically spelled out that they were expecting the environment and economy to collapse, and the plan was to keep adding cops.
Back then I was like damn, but now I wish I saved it somewhere because that shit has been scrubbed or buried.
Anyway thanks for checking
In addition to what others have answered, Gwynne Dyer’s talk Geopolitics in a Hotter World talks a fair bit about this too. Most governments are preparing for climate unrest in the coming decades.
