When the war started it was seizure-this and sanction-that. I’ve read that $350B in Russian assets were seized and held, while major companies exited the Russian market, the ruble crashed, and inflation rocketed.

Meanwhile the cost of the Russian war must be astronomical to maintain, imports/exports have halted with Europe, there’s no financial aid to Russia (that I’m aware of) and multi-billion dollar resource supplies were cancelled.

All this, and Russia seems to still be having a good old time. Russians are on holidays en mass, the country is buying up arms and fossil fuels like its church Sunday, and their war machine still powers away and is prepared to keep fighting for a decade if it has to.

How? How does a country take that much of a financial beating and still be thriving? Where is the point of being broke and not being able to fund a war anymore?

  • @trebuchet@lemmy.ml
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    1 year ago

    How? How does a country take that much of a financial beating and still be thriving? Where is the point of being broke and not being able to fund a war anymore?

    Not only that but I remember reading a lot of articles about how Russia was going to economically collapse as a result…almost two years ago.

    Also a lot of articles about how weak Russia was militarily, how they lost all their troops and equipment already, how morale in their military was so poor the army was just going to run away at any moment, how one major asset after another was destroyed by the Ukrainians…for almost two years now.

    Yet here they are still, not collapsed, not defeated. It probably is a good idea to take the media with a grain of salt and realize just because they’re the so-called free press doesn’t make them necessarily the truthful press.

    • @atlasraven31@lemm.ee
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      71 year ago

      To be fair the russian army has lost experienced leaders in all areas and it will have long term negative effects. Morale has been particularly low, maybe it didn’t cause a collapse but it sure caused an increase in russian POWs, abandoned vehicles, and a lack of initiative. Supply problems have also slowed down artillery and operations.

    • @MataVatnik@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Yeah, for people listening to good analysts we knew all that stuff about Russia collapsing was mostly wishful thinking. Perun is a good example, early on he talked about how russia will likely be able to maintain their economy and military production, albeit at wartime levels. But I can see how a layperson only reading sensationalized news headlines pushed by mainstrean media and social media could’ve of thought there was a real possibility.

    • @FeelzGoodMan420@eviltoast.org
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      1 year ago

      The media is complete fucking bullshit. On both sides of the poltical spectrum. And private forums/platforms, even such as this one, are unfortunately also full of bullshit. It is very very very very difficult to obtain accurate information and analytics these days. Hence all the issues with misinformation all over the place. Then throw in AI to make it exponentially worse… it’s not great. Unfortunately at this point I jjust assume that literally no one has any fucking clue what they’re talking about and everyone is lying. Fun times we live in :-/.

      • @isles@lemmy.world
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        61 year ago

        assume that literally no one has any fucking clue what they’re talking about and everyone is lying

        I’m not sure this is a new development.

        • @FeelzGoodMan420@eviltoast.org
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          1 year ago

          It’s not, but it has gotten worse over the past like 7 years. Now it’s even more accelerated with AI. Not sure most people realize how absolutely fucked the Internet is with AI. Like just check Google search results for anything. It’s dogshit. Thx AI! It will only get worse. A lot of news articles now are also written by AI and it’s blatantly obvious. The quality is worse.

  • @labbbb@thelemmy.club
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    21 year ago

    The neo-Nazi Pootin believed in RuSSian power so much that he ordered the mafia from the Central Bank of the country to once again artificially “freeze” the ruble from falling so that the RuSSian economy would not collapse, HA. Unfortunately, it was a joke.

  • @labbbb@thelemmy.club
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    1 year ago

    I can only say from the point of view of sanctions why.

    Yes, many normal companies have left RuSSia (unlike, for example, Nestle, Kellogg’s, Mondelez, German Storck, Perfetti Van Melle, Ferrero, P&G and Colgate, which make their products in China, lol), yes, sanctions will put more and more pressure on the RuSSian “economy” over time…

    BUT, the sanctions, in my opinion, are “soft” compared to those that the United States, Europe and their partners have imposed on North Korea, Syria and Iran.

    I am sure that no one (if we talk about consumer goods at least) from European or American companies can EVEN trade in such third world countries as Iran (with their terrorist government), Syria or North Korea (the last two are also terrorist states). That is, I think, even Nestle, which is hated throughout Reddit, cannot legally trade there, but if you look, every “dirty” and unethical transnational corporation trades with/sells their goods in RuSSia.

  • Hyperreality
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    1 year ago

    Some possible reasons:

    1. One of their sources is Sudanese gold. Basically, they’re helping to exacerbate the genocide in Sudan, so they can fund their genocide in Ukraine.
    2. Russia has arguably won the sanctions war. They’ve shifted trade to China and India. Or they’re exporting raw materials through third countries to Europe, or transfering oil at sea, bypassing sanctions at a relatively low cost.
    3. Made deals with other oil producing countries to not increase production, so that prices remain stable.
    4. War isn’t that expensive, unless you’re the US (and care about casualty rates). North Korea. Dirt poor country, almost entirely cut off from the world, still manages to maintain a sizeable military and even develop nuclear weapons. Russia? Old soviet stock that was rusting in a barn, North Korean shells that occasionally kill your own troops, troops you only pay if they survive if at all. Send prisoners to the front, saves money on prisons. Send people from the poorest regions, so you don’t have to pay them much, and it doesn’t negatively affect GDP that much.
    5. Do like the Russians did during and after WW2. Rape and pillage. Russia is actively stealing Ukrainian resources, equipment and grain from the occupied territories.
    6. Sell (or barter with) pariah states like North Korea or Iran military technology they would otherwise not have access too, like nuclear or ballistic tech.
    7. War time economy means you can cut lots of stuff. Education, pensions, healthcare, drugs… all very expensive. Not as if the kids dying at the front will need an education anyway. Hell, apparently they’re sending disabled soldiers back to the front. Great way to get healthcare spending down.
  • @OpenStars@startrek.website
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    21 year ago

    In addition to stockpiling, do not underestimate the oil thing. In another few years Germany would have become independent on needing oil from them, hence their time to strike was NOW (well, you know, back then I mean).

    As it was, Russia extorted people like old grandma and grandpas in northern Germany when they hiked the prices so high they consigned them to just die in the dead of winter unless they paid their life savings or the German government stepped in, handing the cash to Russia in order to keep those old folks alive.

    They knew what they were doing - they are greedy and murderous but not all THAT dumb. Plus Russia takes from neighboring states too, especially their citizenry to send to the front lines - every little bit helps!? It also “helps” that they don’t mind consigning their own citizens to die if it would save enough money for the oligarchs to justify the loss of those workers - they are not like how we are used to be. But don’t worry, dead or not, I’m sure that their “votes” will still be counted, when it comes time to reelect Putin!

  • @Zippy@lemmy.world
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    321 year ago

    Oil and gas is massively profitable. Western nations have crippled that industry resulting in countries like Russia becoming energy giants. The world is consuming new records in consumption this year and let capita, developed nations are nearly a factor more then emerging nations.

  • @Crack0n7uesday@lemmy.world
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    91 year ago

    They have a lot of natural resources, most of the EU is reliant on their natural gas, especially during the winter. If you live in certain parts of the world your choice is literally buy Russian gas or freeze to death.

        • @GBU_28@lemm.ee
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          91 year ago

          Huh? Reducing dependence on a long term energy supplier isnt a quick thing. This isnt a video game

          • modifier
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            61 year ago

            I beg your pardon. I thought your comment was a dark observation on the softening effect of Global Warming on Russian winters.

  • @psud@lemmy.world
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    111 year ago

    They’re a petro state. Attempts to keep them from profiting from oil have completely failed, as Russia can sell it to their friendly countries

  • ShindangAp
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    931 year ago

    Russia lived with sanctions for 70 some years as the Soviet Union, and has always been prepared to endure more. They are an economy built around raw, natural resources and can be largely self-sustaining…

    And it has been pointed out, that Iran has been fighting off sanctions very successfully over the last twenty, thirty yeas…

    Their secret then is Russia’ secret now, more or less:

    India will trade with anybody and be neutral, and it isn’t a large task to create a shell company in India that peddles your wares throughout the whole of the world, repackaged and rebranded. At the height of Trump’s reintroduced sanctions on Iran, I was able to eat Iranian dates in South Korea - a country that followed US protcols and actually made it impossible for Iranians to start new private bank accounts unless in specific circumstances and did everything they could to place barriers on trade.

    Heed you, these shell companies used to exist in places like Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc., but US sanctions shut this down. It all moved to India…

    Which is likely where a lot of Russian exports head when they aren’t just being imported completely independent of the Western world to places like Iran and China… China, of course, is another factor, as trade between RU and CN have increased exponentially over the last few years since the war started…

    I could go on but, already, I am rambling… Suffice it to say, there’s a mssive block of countries that hate Western imperialism and/or are neutral and/or already face sanctions, and this network continues to trade with one another, and they also have begun to help facilitate one another trading with the West, either knowingly or just because they lack the will or robust enough resources to police it up.

    Globalization is its own enemy when it comes to the West trying to impose sanctions, IMO.

    • RubberDuck
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      121 year ago

      There is also a Perun Video that talks about war economies more in general and the Russian and Ukrainian economies specifically.

      war economics 101.
      There are few things people have been keener to predict throughout history than ‘quick’ wars. Pro Russian commentators after February 24th 2022 expected a rapid victory - while Western media was quick to suggest that Russia’s economy was collapsing soon after sanctions were implemented.
      Instead, both Ukraine and Russia show signs of increasing their wartime production and scaling up their armed forces. That should not come as a surprise. Historically, the process of converting from a civilian to a wartime economy has yielded more than enough results to overcome even significant trauma inflicted on the industrial base (for example, strategic bombing attacks).
      Russia’s economy is suffering, it’s long term economic prospects have been badly wounded by a collapse in international trust, market denial, and a barrage of sanctions. Ukraine’s economy is likewise under immense pressure - primarily from physical attacks by the Russian armed forces. But it would be naïve to think that either is likely to collapse in the coming weeks and months. As long as the will to go on (and foreign support) remains in play, there is every reason to think that both nations will find a way to keep their economies going.
      In this episode, we look at the basics of war-economics, industry conversion, and try to understand why ‘short wars’ are so hard to win between peer opponents, once the economic struggle begins in earnest.

  • @Mistic@lemmy.world
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    1411 year ago

    An economics student from Russia here, here’s my perspective.

    First, is that a country’s economy is a lot less volatile than we expected. There is also another factor that played into it. During covid, Russian companies amassed a sizable amount of inventory that was already inflated compared to European companies due to how volatile our economy is. This has given them enough time to reroute supply chains once sanctions hit.

    Basically, the so-called “grey import” plays a major role in assuring the stability of our economy. Companies either route their import/export through neighboring countries or through affiliated companies.

    Second is the competency of our central bank. After most of the major banks were cut off from SWIFT (used for international transactions), they raised the key rate, limited the amount of money you can cash out at one time, and did some other stuff. Higher key rate = higher deposit interest rate, but at the same time, credit became more expensive. All of this was needed for preventing banks from defaulting. Once panic died down, the changes were reverted. Now, they’re dealing with inflation.

    Lastly, the majority of our budget comes from oil and gas. Since Europe didn’t want to buy it, Russia started selling it to Asia at discounted prices. Quantity of oil/gas sold drastically increased, which mitigated reduced prices and led to a surplus budget. Not to mention that they started pushing on large companies to reduce the amount of dividends and instead re-invest the money.

    I wouldn’t call it “thriving,” however. All of this has definitely led to a slowdown in growth, which, as time goes by, will only get worse. But for now it’s fine.

    • @JohnDClay@sh.itjust.works
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      331 year ago

      The central bank has been surprisingly competent. But it seems like they’re often trading short term problems for long term ones, so we’ll see how they deal with them.

      What do you think of this assessment? You agree, or is William Spaniel missing some stuff? https://youtu.be/ecdxs8Al424

      • @Mistic@lemmy.world
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        They guy did his research, and he did it right. Even mentioning the “social contract”, that’s not something you hear from an average youtuber.

        There’s only a few things I’ve noted

        Although the monthly rate can be calculated as yearly÷12 and is acceptable, it is inaccurate. Doesn’t change much, but still. ( (1+monthly rate)^12 = 1+yearly rate <= this is the accurate conversion)

        Next is “failed pension reform.” It’s failed in political sense. The intent of it was to temporarily lessen the depletion of pension fund, which it technically did do. But, yeah, it was absolutely not popular. Not to mention that it didn’t solve the root of the problem, which was obvious from the start. Back during his first or second presidency period, he promised not to raise the age for retirement, yet in 2018, he did exactly that. Needless to say that his ratings have been falling ever since then and up till February of 2022.

        The one thing I would’ve liked him to also mention is “quality of foreign exchange earnings,” which is a relatively new term. Essentially, companies now need to pay attention to wether or not they can exchange earned currency for something that they can trade with other countries or within Russia. Previously, they traded in dollars, so it was never an issue.