When the war started it was seizure-this and sanction-that. I’ve read that $350B in Russian assets were seized and held, while major companies exited the Russian market, the ruble crashed, and inflation rocketed.
Meanwhile the cost of the Russian war must be astronomical to maintain, imports/exports have halted with Europe, there’s no financial aid to Russia (that I’m aware of) and multi-billion dollar resource supplies were cancelled.
All this, and Russia seems to still be having a good old time. Russians are on holidays en mass, the country is buying up arms and fossil fuels like its church Sunday, and their war machine still powers away and is prepared to keep fighting for a decade if it has to.
How? How does a country take that much of a financial beating and still be thriving? Where is the point of being broke and not being able to fund a war anymore?
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They have a lot of natural resources, most of the EU is reliant on their natural gas, especially during the winter. If you live in certain parts of the world your choice is literally buy Russian gas or freeze to death.
Luckily becoming less so year by year
Oof, pyrrhic as fuck
Huh? Reducing dependence on a long term energy supplier isnt a quick thing. This isnt a video game
I beg your pardon. I thought your comment was a dark observation on the softening effect of Global Warming on Russian winters.
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Because even if they actually had an income of zero, they had saved up enough money over the years to be able to survive off it for some time. Commonly referred to as a “war chest”. They don’t actually have an income of zero though, their income is actually quite significant since they still have major trading partners like Iran, India and China to sell their fossil fuels and other resources to. They don’t buy fossil fuels, incidentally, they sell them. Like Saudi Arabia.
Also, you can buy things with more than just money. People figure that Kim Jong Un probably isn’t trading his stuff to them for money, but instead is getting technological assistance from them. Just one of their modern fighter-bomber tech, for instance, would be immeasurably valuable to N Korea, where their own tech has lagged behind a good bit over the years.
Lastly, people in the west have been doing sanctions evasion. I recall some German financial/tech company has its CEO now wanted by Interpol for being a Russian agent. So, when your own people are playing fast and loose with the law, that’s going to make things like sanctions more difficult.
In addition to stockpiling, do not underestimate the oil thing. In another few years Germany would have become independent on needing oil from them, hence their time to strike was NOW (well, you know, back then I mean).
As it was, Russia extorted people like old grandma and grandpas in northern Germany when they hiked the prices so high they consigned them to just die in the dead of winter unless they paid their life savings or the German government stepped in, handing the cash to Russia in order to keep those old folks alive.
They knew what they were doing - they are greedy and murderous but not all THAT dumb. Plus Russia takes from neighboring states too, especially their citizenry to send to the front lines - every little bit helps!? It also “helps” that they don’t mind consigning their own citizens to die if it would save enough money for the oligarchs to justify the loss of those workers - they are not like how we
areused to be. But don’t worry, dead or not, I’m sure that their “votes” will still be counted, when it comes time to reelect Putin!There are a lot of actions they can take to prop themselves up in the short term.
Nothing they can do about their dying demographics though.
Steal children from the countries you invade. They are doing that.
I mean I’m no expert but the US has only had 17 years of peacetime in its 247 ish years of existence and it’s still going. War can often be profitable though I couldn’t tell you if that’s the case here.
I do know, however, that Russia is a huge oil and gas provider and despite the hand wringing that politicians do over human rights they almost always ignore them when it comes to fossil fuels.
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I don’t think sanctions really work that well if I’m honest. Cuba has been sanctioned for what 60? 70? years now and while it isn’t exactly a world superpower it’s still here and doing pretty well given the circumstances
Cubans are exceptionally poor.
No they aren’t. They have similar wealth to other Caribbean nations, being richer than places like Jamaica and Haiti but poorer than Trinidad or the Dominican Republic. In global terms they rank 83rd, so above average, and they have a relatively high development index, I.e. pretty good health care and education. They might seem poor to you, but they’re actually richer than most of world.
This is exactly right - and Russia and the Russian people experienced this lifestyle in the Soviet Union. They are fully prepared to endure it once again…
After all, the elites & sub-elites will still get everything that they want, and the Russian people thesmelves are not doing any worse than folks in third world countries (that’s for sure!) which manage to putter along under their own corrupt oligarchs, rain or shine.
I wonder how much of it was just good old propaganda. I know it’s a lot, just curious to what extent. What proportion of Russia’s GDP the sanction represented. Also eVen Europe kept buying fuel from Russia. i m sure they still do to some extent. War is a funny thing you would think it’s all pure hatred , but the older I get more I see it as just kinetic négociation between the owners. With a bit of marketing sprinkled on it. To quote Lord Faarquad " Some of you may die, but that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make"
Proceeds from oil and gas sales for Russia’s federal budget fell by about 24% to 8.822 trillion roubles ($99.4 billion) last year, finance ministry data showed on Thursday, following weaker oil prices and reduced gas sales to Europe.
Whether that’s “enough” or as much as expected, I don’t know. But it gives some context on what’s happened.
India has used it as an opportunity to get a lot of cheap oil from them
They’re a petro state. Attempts to keep them from profiting from oil have completely failed, as Russia can sell it to their friendly countries
An economics student from Russia here, here’s my perspective.
First, is that a country’s economy is a lot less volatile than we expected. There is also another factor that played into it. During covid, Russian companies amassed a sizable amount of inventory that was already inflated compared to European companies due to how volatile our economy is. This has given them enough time to reroute supply chains once sanctions hit.
Basically, the so-called “grey import” plays a major role in assuring the stability of our economy. Companies either route their import/export through neighboring countries or through affiliated companies.
Second is the competency of our central bank. After most of the major banks were cut off from SWIFT (used for international transactions), they raised the key rate, limited the amount of money you can cash out at one time, and did some other stuff. Higher key rate = higher deposit interest rate, but at the same time, credit became more expensive. All of this was needed for preventing banks from defaulting. Once panic died down, the changes were reverted. Now, they’re dealing with inflation.
Lastly, the majority of our budget comes from oil and gas. Since Europe didn’t want to buy it, Russia started selling it to Asia at discounted prices. Quantity of oil/gas sold drastically increased, which mitigated reduced prices and led to a surplus budget. Not to mention that they started pushing on large companies to reduce the amount of dividends and instead re-invest the money.
I wouldn’t call it “thriving,” however. All of this has definitely led to a slowdown in growth, which, as time goes by, will only get worse. But for now it’s fine.
The central bank has been surprisingly competent. But it seems like they’re often trading short term problems for long term ones, so we’ll see how they deal with them.
What do you think of this assessment? You agree, or is William Spaniel missing some stuff? https://youtu.be/ecdxs8Al424
They guy did his research, and he did it right. Even mentioning the “social contract”, that’s not something you hear from an average youtuber.
There’s only a few things I’ve noted
Although the monthly rate can be calculated as yearly÷12 and is acceptable, it is inaccurate. Doesn’t change much, but still. ( (1+monthly rate)^12 = 1+yearly rate <= this is the accurate conversion)
Next is “failed pension reform.” It’s failed in political sense. The intent of it was to temporarily lessen the depletion of pension fund, which it technically did do. But, yeah, it was absolutely not popular. Not to mention that it didn’t solve the root of the problem, which was obvious from the start. Back during his first or second presidency period, he promised not to raise the age for retirement, yet in 2018, he did exactly that. Needless to say that his ratings have been falling ever since then and up till February of 2022.
The one thing I would’ve liked him to also mention is “quality of foreign exchange earnings,” which is a relatively new term. Essentially, companies now need to pay attention to wether or not they can exchange earned currency for something that they can trade with other countries or within Russia. Previously, they traded in dollars, so it was never an issue.
Great insights. Thank you.
Very informative, thanks
Russians are not having a good old time. Things are very bad in Russia since the invasion.
They are being financed by China and India. Their long time prospects are pretty terrible because they will rack up massive debts to those countries. But I suspect they will be able to continue the war longer than Ukraine can stay politically favored in the West. If Trump is elected, it’s over for Ukraine.
How? How does a country take that much of a financial beating and still be thriving? Where is the point of being broke and not being able to fund a war anymore?
Not only that but I remember reading a lot of articles about how Russia was going to economically collapse as a result…almost two years ago.
Also a lot of articles about how weak Russia was militarily, how they lost all their troops and equipment already, how morale in their military was so poor the army was just going to run away at any moment, how one major asset after another was destroyed by the Ukrainians…for almost two years now.
Yet here they are still, not collapsed, not defeated. It probably is a good idea to take the media with a grain of salt and realize just because they’re the so-called free press doesn’t make them necessarily the truthful press.
Yeah, for people listening to good analysts we knew all that stuff about Russia collapsing was mostly wishful thinking. Perun is a good example, early on he talked about how russia will likely be able to maintain their economy and military production, albeit at wartime levels. But I can see how a layperson only reading sensationalized news headlines pushed by mainstrean media and social media could’ve of thought there was a real possibility.
To be fair the russian army has lost experienced leaders in all areas and it will have long term negative effects. Morale has been particularly low, maybe it didn’t cause a collapse but it sure caused an increase in russian POWs, abandoned vehicles, and a lack of initiative. Supply problems have also slowed down artillery and operations.
The media is complete fucking bullshit. On both sides of the poltical spectrum. And private forums/platforms, even such as this one, are unfortunately also full of bullshit. It is very very very very difficult to obtain accurate information and analytics these days. Hence all the issues with misinformation all over the place. Then throw in AI to make it exponentially worse… it’s not great. Unfortunately at this point I jjust assume that literally no one has any fucking clue what they’re talking about and everyone is lying. Fun times we live in :-/.
assume that literally no one has any fucking clue what they’re talking about and everyone is lying
I’m not sure this is a new development.
Hello fellow ex-Redditor
It’s not, but it has gotten worse over the past like 7 years. Now it’s even more accelerated with AI. Not sure most people realize how absolutely fucked the Internet is with AI. Like just check Google search results for anything. It’s dogshit. Thx AI! It will only get worse. A lot of news articles now are also written by AI and it’s blatantly obvious. The quality is worse.
Russia is like 7x the size of Ukraine and has been losing for over a year.
oil and gas