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Ditch reddit, join lemmy!
Return Of
It never left, bro.
Is Reddit a crypto?
or a Ponzi scheme
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It’s crazy. Used to be almost a lifestyle. Now it is just another failed social media project.
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Lemny is cool, but it is kind of a circle jerk. 30-50 year old middle class tech-job left-leaning males are probably 2/3 of most servers atm.
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Well said.
They have avatars linked to ETH NFTs. They also have a crypto tip system in some sub’s.
Their pre order ipo is wanting and planning on like $31 to $34 a share. I’m thinking no.
$6.5B valuation (assuming a standard 20x EPS model) should imply in the neighborhood of $325M/year in revenue from a company that makes about a third of that.
Either Reddit plans on tripling its revenues in the near future or this is an unrealistic target.
It’s a sham, imo. I was on reddit for 15 years. It has peaked already. They won’t be able to get more for ads and I don’t believe their data for AI will go higher than what they’ve gotten for it this year. The only way they’ll be worth more is to cut overhead.
0.031 sounds more realistic
It’s not quite that bad, the author buries this near the end:
There’s 97%+ Downside if Growth Matches 2023
Which if I read that correctly means he thinks a fair valuation of the stock is about 90 cents.
0.00000031 more like
Stocks are basically a percentage of ownership. The share price as a dollar amount is meaningless because it could be 1% of a company or 0.000000001%. The relevant number here is that Reddit is IPOing at a valuation of $5 billion (that stock buys a ¹⁄₁₅₀₀₀₀₀₀₀ interest), which all I can reply with is hahahahahahahaha
I am aware. It’s valuation was in the article.
Well, either two values give the third. All one’s gotta know is two of: valuation, price per share, number of shares.
Great article and very thorough, if you have interest in the subject, I’d say it’s a must read, despite the source. And I 100% agree that reddit would be a very risky stock to buy, with more chance of becoming worthless than actually make you money.
This is completely disregarding my personal opinion that reddit quality has deteriorated for years, because sometimes even poor quality can be a great money maker, when it has achieved market dominance or critical mass in its segment, and no doubt reddit has done that.
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I think the company may never monetize its platform without angering its users and the entire premise of Reddit is user-generated content.
Yep.
Also - reddit spends 55% of it’s budget on R&D?! WTAF!?!
It’s expensive to research and develop Spez’s apocalypse bunker.
Or as I like to call it: Super Weenie Hut Jr.
Nowadays it’s llm powered bots all the way down.
What else do you think they should spend their money on?
Serious question, they’re a social media site, their whole goal is to sell ads to consumers, which is all R&D cost and server cost. User acquisition at this point is minimal, Sales is basically “We have a lot of users, want to talk to them.” The goal is to create ways that sales can sell to consumers to make money.
Doesn’t help the consumer base is actively hostile to advertisements.
So, they are likely very poorly managed but, R&D is a common slushfund to keep your profit negative so you don’t have to pay taxes.
which makes sense if the r&d gives return on investment.
otherwise you’d be better off paying tax and taking the profits anyway.
R&D is also a fairly big tax break companies can use.
Shouldn’t most of a midsize tech company’s budget be that?
That said, they’re terrible at it. And having worked with some of the folks they hired, I’m not totally surprised.
Hundreds of millions of dollars each year and in 20 years all they did is two redesigns, both of which sucked worse than what they had originally.
Oof.
A decent search tool is right around the corner.
Unironically, yes. As part of Reddit’s deal with Google, they’re supposed to get access to some of Google’s search tools.
But Google is crap now for searching.
…and they make SOOO much money because of it. Companies are buying into it to push their results higher using SEO words and phrases to help.
No, it’s actually quite brilliant. Google results return mainly AI posts, and Reddit is now 90% AI regurgitated crap. It’s a match made in hell.
Have you ever tried to find something on a corporate Google drive?
It’s kind of impressive how bad Google is at search these days.
site:reddit.com
Delivering ads to people who are armed up to the teeth with adblockers requires quite some research effort.
Oh just Forbes totally destroying Reddit.
Dude does NOT like reddit. I wonder which app he liked?
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That you, Steve Huffman?
More specifically, Reddit notes in its S-1 that, as an emerging growth company, it will:
- present only two years of audited financial statements in the S-1,
- not be required to obtain an auditor’s attestation report on the company’s internal controls over financial reporting requirements of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act,
- provide less extensive disclosure about executive compensation arrangements, and
- will not require stockholder non-binding advisory votes on executive compensation or golden parachute arrangements,
That sure sounds like a solid investment
Also, the two classes of shares (new shares get 1 vote per share, existing shareholders get 10 per share)… what the fuck. Why would anyone buy that shit
No wonder they are trying to sell it to redditors.
“[moderators] may be able to leverage their influence within those communities to change the dynamics of the discourse within the communities or to disrupt the normal operation of their communities or other communities on our platform.”
And they can give you rando-bans out of nowhere, suddenly cutting you off from your topic of interest and exposing serious flaws with the entire site.
This is one of those rare cases where what is being said is less interesting than who says it.
What: Reddit stock is junk, the IPO will fail hard, and anyone investing on it is begging to lose money. I believe that most people discussing this in Lemmy already know that, so the info isn’t new here.
Who: Forbes. Forbes’ target audience is investors; greedy vulture capitalists love it. So if Forbes says “it’ll sink!”, investors are less eager to buy stock, and that sinks the stonks even further. So what Forbes says is often a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I’m glad that Forbes is doing it. I want to see Reddit die.
EDIT: as other posters are correctly highlighting, I derped - the article is from a “contributor”, and it has basically no impact or visibility.
Damn - now I want Forbes shitting on the IPO!
Yes it’s a bit confusing with that “Forbes” name?
But the article is good IMO, and has many 100% valid points.One of the most convincing points is …
competition has had many years to acquire Reddit prior to this IPO and have chosen not too. Acquiring Reddit now wouldn’t create all that much value for a competing social platform.
I sure as hell wouldn’t acquire a company for a product that has a near identical, free, open-source alternative that’s in active use.
Compare to Lemmy’s userbase, which is anti-capitalist and clearly has a bone to pick with reddit. If I had to value Lemmy it would be for the cost of hardware and operations alone.
Which is kinda what Reddit should be valued at, because its a community oriented site, the value is never in the contributions. You can’t guarantee their engagement. They can always pack up and leave. Anyone thinking there’s a value in community oriented sites is being fooled.
I know people are gonna think “daaaamn, you just shit over lemmy too” but Lemmy makes no illusion of it, its a community funded effort, so the product offering is going to be suited to its audience, and this helps engagement. Reddit has no greater objective than tricking advertisers that people will visit.
Well, at least one person thought it was a good idea to acquire a Mastodon competitor, and they paid a pretty penny for it
0.1% of the users isn’t exactly a threat to their model.
Just like Reddit wasn’t a threat to Digg.
The scale is immensely and massively different. Modern social media is not going away, the digg phenomena was one driven by a much smaller number of more passionate users.
That much smaller number of more passionate users has already left Reddit.
I absolutely would, for the users. But only if the userbase wasn’t full of Nazis and pedophiles, so reddit is still a no for me.
“Forbes” is not the Forbes you are referring to. It’s a blogging platform that shows the forbes name and claims they’re “Contributors” but isn’t actually “Forbes Magazine” which is what investors actually trust.
Basically this is just some shitbag pretending to be classy by hiding behind someone who sold him that space. There’s a ton of shit Video Game “Articles” on the site too, same story(masquerade), same value (low) , same respectability (none)
Don’t talk shit about Paul Tassi, he’s the best thing they have going on that part of the site (when he’s not going off about Dedstiny 2)
Note that this is a “contributor” post, which is essentially their sneaky wording for editorial. It isn’t a real Forbes article and anyone that knows the Forbes website won’t pay any attention to the article.
Good catch - I didn’t pay attention to the fact that it’s a contributor post. Even then, I believe it to be still exposing the “Reddit is junk stock” (implied: “don’t buy it!”) discourse to potential investors. The title alone already does it, for those who skip past the article.
Very important distinction! Even I’ve written “contributor” posts on behalf is a company when I was moon lighting for a block chain startup. They’re not quite ads, but you very much can buy your way into that.
It will still have made the rounds, since it trended on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39667026
Yeah, too often Forbes will publish any old trash.
But it’s hard to argue with maths.
Great piece of marketing to have someone write the article, have people talk about it mistakenly as an actual Forbes article and drive interest in the stock that will make many clueless individuals suddenly have an interest in Reddit Stock.
News is news … any news whether good or bad, especially if it is controversial and agitates people, is good news for the company pushing their name.
Chances are … it was Reddit company marketers that set up this article to be featured on the Forbes website to drive attention to their company and their upcoming IPO.
But you should also take into consideration that this article did not get a huge attention. It is almost a week old and has a few thousand viewers.
Extremely well written and put together. Still, as harsh as it is, I think the author was still not harsh enough.
From the article:
Reddit earns an Unattractive Stock Rating.
Of course it does, have you seen the average redditor?
Absolutely savage
Future penny stock.
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Only if the the accurate bot population is never disclosed. If people found out how much of Reddit is bots, the value would drop.
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Yeah, they are getting that Google bump. Honestly I’d have bought a bit of IPO stock if it didn’t require giving reddit my real info. I’m not that desperate though.
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I think it’s worth less than that. But “reddit gold stock” doesn’t roll off the tongue as well.
sounds like a ripe opportunity for YOLO Stock Option Puts
They know WSB can tank their stock and there’s sweet fuck all they can do about it lol.
