Chad, a country in north-central Africa, borders a lot of active geopolitical areas - Niger to the West, Libya to the North, Sudan to the East - but is scarcely discussed itself. I’m not really knowledgable enough to give anything like a decent history, but the recent gist is that the country was ruled for three decades by Idriss Déby until he was killed in battle in 2021 while fighting northern rebels. Idriss was part of a few wars - such as the one against Gaddafi in Libya, and also the Second Congo War. While he was initially elected democratically in 1996 and 2001, he then eliminated term limits and just kept on going.
After his death, Chad has been ruled by his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby. In early May 2024, elections began which were meant to result in the transition from a military-ruled goverment to a civilian-ruled one. Needless to say, Mahamat won the election - with 61% of the vote. Both father and son have been on the side of the French and the US, whereas the opposition is against foreign colonizers and has attempted to put pressure on the government in numerous ways to achieve a more substantial independence. France maintains a troop presence in Chad, and it’s something of a stronghold for them - when French troops were forced out of Niger, they retreated to Chad. However, it’s not clear even to the people inside Chad what precisely the French are doing there. I mean, we know what their presence is really for - imperialism and election rigging - but in an official sense, they don’t seem to be doing much to help the country materially. What is clear is that they like to intervene on behalf of the ruling regime and against rebels a whole lot - the most interventions by France in any African country, in fact.
The United States, so keen on human rights and democracy in so many places around the world like Russia, Iran, and China, have - for some strange reason! - decided for the last 30 years that they can live with a couple dictators and wars in the case of Chad. In fact, various American state propaganda firms like the ISW and Washington Post have warned the current government about the Wagner Group interfering with the country and spreading anti-Western sentiments as in the rest of the Sahel.
Things are very tough for Chad. They are among the poorest countries in Africa and host about one million people fleeing from nearby conflicts, which is a pretty large number when Chad has a population of about 17 million.
With the French Empire fading, they are beginning to run out of places to retreat to in Africa. Macron, in January, said that his defense council had decided to reduce troop presence in Gabon, Senegal, and the Côte d’Ivoire, though has maintained troop levels in Chad and Djibouti. Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet from France, anti-empire sentiments are boiling to the surface in New Caledonia/Kanaky, which is unfortunate for the French military as they really need that island, both for the massive nickel reserves, but also as an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Pacific just in case a conflict with China pops off.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you’ve wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don’t worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Chad! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
News thread favorite John Mearsheimer in Kangerooland talking about “Israel”. Covers a lot that we already know. Points he makes include: (as appropriated from the trueanon thread I found this on)
-Israel will never accept a two-state solution or a multi-ethnic democracy as their goal is explicitly an ethnostate. This is why they supported Hamas over the PLO historically, as Hamas provides a perfect foil compared to the PLO
-Israel cannot defeat Hamas, their only real options were ethnic cleansing of Gaza (which failed) or genocide (which is what they are currently doing)
-Israel is unquestionably an apartheid state, however, they are aware of the instability of apartheid (re. South Africa). This leaves ethnic cleansing or genocide as the only long-term solutions
-Post-10/7 Israel needs to deal with the fact that their reputation of deterrence has been badly damaged and they have reached pariah-state level
-Israel will have an increasingly difficult time dealing with external threats due to the advancements in drone and missile technology employed by Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen
RFK really is a socialite’s socialite with how much he got around in New York, eh?
Okay map-bros and map-gals, what’s going on in Ukraine? In Chasov Yar finally liberated? Is Ukraine finally on the verge of major frontline collapse? Are we in the weeks where decades happen or still in the decades where weeks happen phase? Which are the next major towns/cities to be contested?
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The trots in Terf island
are running a independent candidate for the upcoming general election, looks like their main focus for their campaign is going to be the war in gazaVote for Fiona Lali – Kick out the war criminals!
Following her takedown of Suella Braverman, and with a surge of grassroots support, Fiona Lali is standing as a revolutionary communist candidate for Stratford and Bow in the upcoming general election. Vote for Fiona! Bring down the warmongers!
In Gaza, innocent men, women, and children are being butchered and starved to death by the brutal Israeli war machine. And both the Tories and Labour have blood on their hands.
here is the tweet, mostly being criticized by zionist labour and tories with the account of the Workers Party of Britain accusing of spliting the vote.
they will never send a second submersible
The soc dems and dem socs in Mexico absolutely crushed it holy shit
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Mexican Presidential Elections
Claudia Sheinbaum (MORENA-PT-PVEM) (AMLO Party)- | 57.41% +
Xochitl Galvez (PAN-PRI-PRD) (Establishment Coalition)- | 29.73% -
Jorge Alvarez Maynez (MC) (Liberal)- | 10.50% +
Calculated: 40.17%
Italian village with 46 residents has 30 local election candidates (Guardian)
spoiler
The last time Igor De Santis ran for mayor in Ingria, a tiny village surrounded by forests and mountains near Turin, he won an easy landslide victory. But he faces a tough challenge in his bid for a fourth mandate, after his mother joined a rival camp.
Ingria, one of the smallest villages in Italy, is home to 46 inhabitants. A further 26 people, registered to vote from abroad, make up the electorate.
De Santis, 42, has led the administration since 2009 and had expected competition in the mayoral race from an opposition councillor, 70-year-old Renato Poletto. The situation became more complicated when Stefano Venuti, a Milan resident who has a second home in Ingria, threw his hat into the ring. “We weren’t expecting that,” said De Santis.
And then the micro-race was fully upended by Poletto announcing that he had secured the support of De Santis’s mother, Milena Crosasso, and had put her forward for a councillor position in the ballot to elect a new council on 8-9 June, as part of a list comprising nine women and one man. In all, 30 people – about two-thirds of the village’s inhabitants – are now competing for positions.
“I did ask [my mother] to join me but after she saw that Poletto’s list was mostly women she decided to go with them,” said De Santis. “They are all volunteers who have worked really hard for the village.”
Crosasso said that the rivalry would not impact family harmony. “Both my son and I want the best for the community and this is an opportunity to give voice to women’s points of view without weakening family bonds,” she said.
Ingria is in Italy’s Soana Valley and experiences similar issues to other mountain villages, such as depopulation, scant services and challenges with snow during winter. Since 2022, when it was named as being among Italy’s “most beautiful” villages, it has also had to deal with an increase in tourism.
“There has been an incredible spike and we have to manage this,” said De Santis. “There are few residents, but a lot of second homes. Our main aim is to preserve Ingria’s beauty.”
Venuti told Corriere della Sera newspaper that he decided to run for mayor after being urged to do so by locals. “I’ve integrated very well,” he said.
Despite the competition, De Santis, whose grandfather was mayor of Ingria for 30 years, said he was “optimistic” that he could win.
Interesting things happening in the India elections. They’ll soon be in the seventh phase of voting and on June 4th-5th, we’ll probably have a pretty good idea of who’s won.
The ruling BJP’s slogan is essentially that - screw just a majority, we’re gonna get 400 seats or more out of the 543 seats in government for our ruling coalition (the NDA). In the last election, the BJP got 303 seats, and the NDA as a whole got like ~350, so that’s quite a few seats to climb to reach that goal. But even if don’t reach the goal, they still have a majority.
Right now, major pollsters are estimating between 335 and 393 seats just for the BJP. Meanwhile, there’s people in the opposition who are estimating that not only will the BJP not get to 400 seats, but that they’ll actually fail to get even a majority. The reason why is some polling data, which doesn’t show exact voter sentiment for the parties but instead on what issues voters care about.
- 40% of those surveyed favour the BJP but satisfaction with the government is lower than in 2019, due to your regular suite of economic issues (inflation, poverty, unemployment)
- The whole thing where Modi goes out and consecrates a temple over the ashes of a mosque or whatever fucked up thing they do, that was only a major source of satisfaction for 33% of NDA voters and only 23% of the electorate, so not exactly great returns on that.
- Fewer respondents agreed that the government should get a second chance (44%) than in 2004 (48%), and the BJP lost that election.
- 2019 was an election marked especially by total opposition chaos, and even in those elections, a full 75% of the electorate did not vote for the BJP.
- The BJP won 60% (183) of the seats in 2019 by a margin of over 15%, so that’s 40% (120 seats) of the seats that could be deemed vulnerable in an Indian election (where swings of 5-10% and up to 15% are pretty typical). And it won about 79 of those vulnerable seats with a margin of up to 10%. So if the BJP loses just half of the total vulnerable seats, or at least a big proportion of the more vulnerable ones (only a 10% lead in 2019), then it loses the election.
- In 2019, the BJP got a national vote share of 37%. This was a plurality so it wins in a FPTP system, obviously. The issue with projecting too much from this is that the BJP’s bastions get them large amounts of unnecessary votes (60% or even higher, when they just need a plurality), while their vote share in less BJP-friendly zones is considerably less sturdy. But all the voters in the bastions masks that effect on a national scale.
- There’s also obviously been the farmer’s protests, which have dampened enthusiasm a little, too.
- There’s also some more in-depth analysis about Karnataka in there too which I’m not knowledgable enough to talk about really.
So what’s the takeaway? IDK, I’m not an Indian elections guy. If I woke up to a big BJP majority in early June then I wouldn’t be surprised. And there’s probably a ton of electoral shenanigans just like in every liberal “democracy”, which would favour the party in charge of the government during the elections. But it’s at least statistically possible beyond mere blind hope that the BJP is at least having a tougher time than I had initially thought here.
In an act against Israel, Lula da Silva withdraws ambassador permanently.
article
In a decree published today (29), President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appointed Brazilian ambassador Frederico Meyer as the country’s representative at the UN Conference on Disarmament. With this decision, the diplomat is permanently removed from Israel, a post he held until February. The decree does not name a replacement for Meyer in Tel Aviv.
The act does not mean a complete break in diplomatic relations with Israel. But it is the strongest gesture Brazil has ever made against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
From now on, the embassy will be headed only by the Chargé d’Affaires, reducing the importance of the representation. Diplomatically, it is a sign to the Israelis of the degree of priority and relevance that the Lula government wants to maintain with the Netanyahu government. The withdrawal comes on the eve of a decision by the International Criminal Court on the request of its prosecutor to issue an arrest warrant against Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Israel’s head of government is still facing criticism from international organizations and world leaders, such as Emmanuel Macron, who have denounced the killings of Palestinians. As UOL revealed last week, Meyer returned to Israel after three months of the worst diplomatic crisis between the two countries. In February, because of Lula’s comments about the Second World War and the situation in Gaza, Israel declared the president “persona non grata”. It also called Meyer and demanded that the Brazilian apologize, which he never did.
Lula WIsrael’s reprimand took place at the Holocaust Museum, in Hebrew and in front of the ambassador. The act was considered a “humiliation” at Itamaraty. A few days later, to demonstrate his dissatisfaction, Lula summoned the diplomat back to Brasilia, officially for consultations.
Last week, however, he returned to Israel and, in recent days, even signed official telegrams to the other Brazilian ambassadors, indicating that he was in Tel Aviv. But at no point did he inform the Israeli government that he was back in his post.
He has therefore not resumed his post. Now, in the Official Gazette, Lula appoints Frederico Meyer to the “position of representative of Brazil to the Conference on Disarmament in Switzerland, removing him from the Brazilian Embassy in Tel Aviv to the Permanent Mission of Brazil to the UN”.
Although it plays a strategic role, the Conference on Disarmament has been completely paralyzed for the last 20 years, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the risk of such a body. Until now, the post was held by Ambassador Flávio Damico.
Yemen has divine right to heaven
Yemeni Armed Forces have reportedly struck the USS Eisenhower after firing a number of ballistic and cruise missiles at the aircraft carrier.
https://twitter.com/eyesonsouth1/status/1796492078098325995?s=46
The Morena party this afternoon declared Claudia Sheinbaum the winner of the presidential elections by a “two to one” difference over her main rival, the opposition Xóchitl Gálvez. “Sheinbaum has conquered the people of Mexico for her simplicity, tenacity and foolproof discipline,” said the group’s president, Mario Delgado, from the campaign center of Sigamos haciendo historia, the coalition that also includes the Green Party and the PT. Earlier, Gálvez asked to take care of the vote during the count: “We are competing against authoritarianism and against power.
They are capable of anything. The fight for Mexico City also seems to be defined in favor of Morena and its candidate, Clara Brugada, according to at least three exit polls that give her a wide lead over the opposition Santiago Taboada. The first official quick count data will be available as of ten o’clock tonight.
im going to add more stuff to the linked post as new things come out
