The War is Costing the Israeli Economy $600M a Week Due to Absences of Palestinian Workers

The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has laid bare the Israeli economy’s heavy reliance on Palestinian labor, with the absence of these workers costing the Israeli economy an estimated $600 million per week, equivalent to about 6% of its weekly GDP.

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities on October 7, 2023, around 100,000 Palestinians from the West Bank held permits to work in Israel, primarily in construction and agriculture. However, shortly after the initial Hamas attacks, Israel restricted entry for these Palestinian employees.

To fill the gaps, Israel has recruited workers from India and Sri Lanka, but the labor shortages have still taken a major toll. In Q4 2023, the Israeli economy contracted by 19.4% compared to the same period in 2022, the biggest drop in nearly four years. Private consumption plunged 26.9%, business investment fell 67.8%, and exports declined 18.3%

Palestine Action fucks up more bank branches:
https://twitter.com/Pal_action/status/1800086647846904202?mx=1

In Ukraine - Russia war news:

The Ukrainians seem to be committing to their asymmetric strategy, they know that they can’t beat Russia on the frontlines, so Ukraine is launching an increased amount of attacks against high value targets within Russia. One of the most significant of these is the loss of a Russian Su-57 5th generation stealth fighter jet while it was on the ground, as confirmed by Russian telegrams. It is the first combat loss of a 5th generation fighter aircraft in history, and Russia currently only has a handful of Su-57s that are operational, so a very costly loss. It was unprotected on a runway, and not in a concrete hangar, which is a major oversight from Russia.

In general Russian aviation has lost quite a few high value aircraft throughout the war, both to friendly and enemy fire, including an Su-34 NVO to friendly fire at the beginning of the war (one of only 10, and one of the few fully capable SEAD and EW aircraft at Russia’s disposal), and the suspected loss of various AWACS jets both to enemy and friendly fire, and the loss of the Mach 3 capable MIG 31 aircraft, which were also on the ground and unprotected while they were bombed. The Su-57 loss has a tactical impact, as Russia has made extensive use recently of the stealth kh-69 cruise missiles, which the stealthy Su-57 can carry deep into Ukrainian territory to extend their effective range, due to it’s own stealth capabilities, to enable strikes on power infrastructure deep in Western Ukraine. A double stealth 1-2 punch. However multiple fighter jets in the Russian Air Force can carry the kh-69. The recent MIG 31 losses also have an impact, it is the only normal sized fighter plane/non bomber that can carry the Kinzhal, and flies to high and fast for most Ukrainian air defences to shoot down.

All in all these losses will not change the trajectory of the war or the reality of the frontlines where Ukraine has no answer to Russia, and losses are to be expected, but it does show that Russian aviation’s doctrine is well behind battlefield realities. The lack of proper SEAD/EW aircraft and outdated SEAD/DEAD doctrine, the failure to build protective hangars to protect high value aircraft, and friendly fire incidents are not things an air force of Russia’s size should struggle with. It’s almost as if there has been no modernisation since the end of the cold war.

World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of the decade, energy watchdog warns (FT)

Decades-Long Conspiracy Unveiled: Sabotage of Yemen’s Agriculture

Yemen has the highest rate of food insecurity of any country in the world. And the US and UK have been using biological weapons to sabotage their agricultural industry under the guise of “Aid.”

CIA-linked members confessed to orchestrating these actions, with involvement from British and Dutch embassies. Key actors like the US Department of Agriculture and the FAO were implicated, with USAID’s pivotal role dating back to the late 1980s.

Local USAID operatives outside Yemen continue gathering intel, obstructing advancements in agricultural practices. A Seed Center for Seed Inspection facilitated the entry of inferior seeds, some infected with pests, while spiny weeds were spread instead of vegetable seeds.

USAID targeted fertile soil with contaminated seeds, aiming to render it unsuitable for cultivation, alongside spreading scale insects to hinder wheat production. Spy Shayef al-Hamdani confirmed USAID’s role in spreading epidemics among agricultural crops under the pretext of pest control. USAID’s interventions were carried out through implementing partners, including international organizations, spreading epidemics in specific crops under the guise of controlling pests. USAID played a pivotal role in executing these plans through its operatives both within and outside Yemen.

In rare W, IDF soldier kills someone who actually deserved it: IDF soldier commits suicide, after filming himself demolish Palestinian homes. ( link)

Armed conflicts hit post-WWII record in 2023

More armed conflicts took place in 2023 than in any other year since the end of World War II, a new study has found. The Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) said 59 armed conflicts took place worldwide last year, led by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Twenty-eight of the conflicts were in Africa, followed by Asia with 17 and the Middle East with 10. Just three conflicts were recorded in Europe and a single example in the Americas. Although the number of conflicts grew last year, the number of countries that experienced conflicts declined from 39 in 2022 to 34.

Peace Research Institute of Oslo sounds like a typical western scam NGO but i haven’t actually looked into them. even if it isn’t 100% accurate it does feel like the amount of violence around the globe has been increasing, and with climate change and declining capitalism/american imperial position i worry it’s gonna get worse before it gets better

Busting out the siege weaponry in Northern isn’treal

Cw: flaming trebuchet https://t.me/jeninqassamm/8605

I kind of noticed that westerners treat the oppressed as non existent entities, or ghosts.

Wild speculation time:

Something about Macron’s troop deployments seems very performative.

Perhaps performative in the more obvious sense that he wants to boil the frog and sending in “trainers and advisers” is the thin end of the wedge before sending in troops to make NATO intervention in Ukraine a fait accompli.

But what if it’s performative in another way?

We all know what the outcome of this war looks like. Russia takes the eastern provinces and maybe more, perhaps up to the Dnieper in the south but probably not that far in the north, probably also takes Cherson but probably not Odessa, and maybe Kharkiv maybe not, depending on how good a resistance Ukraine puts up before the negotiations really start. Ukraine won’t be allowed to join NATO and no NATO bases but probably will be allowed to have some security guarantees with the major western players and perhaps even a relationship with NATO that stops short of allowing forward deployments.

So a few significant uncertainties, sure, but the broad shape of it is clear now.

Zelenskyy probably needs to go before this deal can really happen, and there would need to be some force that the Ukrainian public trusts that can prevent the Nazi faction from simply installing another Zelenskyy.

France is in conflict with Russia and has lost out big in Africa and is being poked in the eye in New Caledonia, but is also hitting back to some extent in Armenia.

The UK is a wreckage and Germany is not very strong. Poland is already taking an antagonistic posture towards Ukraine that will probably only get worse especially after the conflict is over and Ukraine has a settlement with Russia.

We don’t need to talk about Italy or Spain or anyone else in Europe.

Leaving France.

They are hostile to Russia and engaged in an active “great game”.

But this great game has at least some ground rules and operates mostly as a struggle over spheres of influence while respecting national borders. It’s constrained great power shit between two second tier military powers.

Germany would continue to be the US’s most loyal dog in Europe and will lead the Central European & Baltic alliance, funding strong defensive works but also putting the brakes on the more rabid Russophobia because Germany even today is against actually getting directly involved in shit and definitely against doing anything that isn’t preapproved by Washington.

France as the regional power delegated control of the rump Ukrainian state would be advantageous to the US by keeping Europe still split between two deeply linked but identifiably distinct power blocs, it would place a power hostile to Russia as the designated subhegemon in southern Eastern Europe and would complement French influence in Armenia to a degree by inserting France into the Black Sea making it the obvious choice for Georgia if Georgia decides to throw down again or in the event of another color revolution. And France has at least historical links with the general region, having recently been a colonial power in the area and having shoved its Gallic nose into the Middle East again and again since the crusades.

France as subhegemon in a rump Ukraine would be an adversary to Russia, but still it would probably be acceptable to Russia to divide Ukraine into two spheres of control, assuming that Russia does not want or cannot occupy all of Ukraine - or both it doesn’t want and actually cannot occupy all of Ukraine which seems to be the case in fact.

So assuming Russia will realpolitik this and accept it both cannot and strategically should not occupy all of Ukraine then it needs to accept that rump Ukraine will be within the western sphere of influence.

And if they don’t want that sphere of influence to be NATO itself, and since they likely both cannot and don’t want to completely dominate Ukraine militarily, then they need to accept some kind of western presence / sphere of influence that stops short of NATO.

What’s more while France is definitely a dog of the US empire, it’s a bit of a Husky. It doesn’t like to do what it’s told. It’s not Germany and will prioritize French interests over US interests, which makes it a good compromise position for Russia since a French presence is Ukraine is actually very different to a NATO presence in Ukraine while still being a western anchor. It also doesn’t hurt that Macron does the same macho bullshit that Putin does and they speak a similar language.

French “advisers” in Ukraine could fairly quickly gain key influence over the military and promote the more pragmatic military faction to force the hard nationalists to accept a compromise and they would be a friend of Ukraine while doing it.

Escalation from “just a few dozen advisers” to actual boots on the ground is a process that will take at least the rest of this year and into next, which is also when the new round of western military aid will start to run out, meaning this is the window for Ukraine to cut a deal.

6-12 months to cut a deal, a suitable western subhegemon that will reliably maintain hostility to Russia while still playing the “great game” and accepting realist compromise in a rules-of-the-jungle based world order.

Acceptable to Russia as preferable to nato, acceptable to the US, acceptable to Ukraine as saviors. Choreographed.

omg joe frenchmiddlename corncob butass hugged his (alleged) son who is a FELON and also maybe didnt’ fill out paperwork correctly! press like if ur a real patriot who smokes crack every 20 minutes (the objective correct amount of time between crack smoking sessions)

edit: i’ve edited this like 7 times just adding more unhinged shit don’t mind me who knows whats real anymore

To stop the far right, France’s leftist parties come to agreement for legislative elections and announce union: “Popular Front”. “A page in the history of France is being written with the New Popular Front”, say the parties in a joint statement.

François Hollande, former president of France, celebrates unity of the left in the legislative elections: “To prevent the far right from coming to power, there comes a time when we must go beyond our differences.”

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Gaza aid leader faces backlash over Labour Party run

Melanie Ward, CEO of the Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) charity, faces major backlash from volunteers and workers after deciding to run as a Labour Party candidate in Scotland. Some 2,250 healthcare workers, medical volunteers, supporters, and donors signed a letter expressing concern.

On June 5, a protest letter was filed by workers and volunteers at MAP, expressing their dismay to the board over Ward’s candidacy with the UK Labour Party. To run for the position of MP in Scotland’s Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency, Ward has taken a leave of absence but has not stepped down from her position.

Despite Ward’s pledge to make real progress for the Palestinian people if elected to Parliament, MAP is currently without an acting CEO during a healthcare collapse in Gaza. Some fear her actions could jeopardize the aid organization’s efforts on the ground, leading to threats of referring MAP to the Charity Commission.

Ward has a history of affiliations with pro-Israel lobby groups, starting with her first trip to Palestine, organized by the Israeli Embassy-funded Union of Jewish Students (UJS). She blogged about meeting Israeli politicians and visiting settlements but shifted her perspective after a second visit to the West Bank. However, her relationship with UJS continued, including participating in a 2017 UJS panel called “Bridges Not Boycotts,” opposing boycotts of Israel.

Ward also supported the anti-Semitism “witch hunt” during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, which purged much of Labour’s pro-Palestinian base, including many Jewish anti-Zionists. She tweeted, “Farewell to Jeremy Corbyn, who really was a truly terrible Labour Party Leader. He will be missed not one little bit by those of us who want to see Labour in government again.”

In 2016, she signed a letter calling for Corbyn’s resignation, shared an article urging the public not to vote for him and tweeted the former Labour leader in 2015, “Corbyn unable to think of situation where he’d commit Forces to military action. Should think a bit harder if he wants to be PM,” in response to his anti-war stance.

I always thought MAP was a pretty good org (and it’s possible/probable they are, just bad leadership) but no reason to give them money so long as Ward is in charge and good orgs like PCRF exist.