One thing worth noting about how much the devil is in the details.
Arizona and Nevada are still leaning pretty solidly R at the moment.(Trump’s hispanic margins have steadily gone up since 2016, dropping the wall focus helped a lot). Wisconsin and Michigan are the closest to going D albeit Trump still leans ahead. PA is in the middle and is the most important of the set. (North Carolina is the strongest R of all 7, and Georgia is the Libertarian Ex-Democrat Chase Olivers homestate which combined with Cornell West’s strong focus there and the election commission shenanigans means those two are out of play barring some good luck and Roy Cooper being picked. Trump would have won Georgia in 2020 with no third party vote and those have leaned left since. I don’t consider them swing states unless Andy or Roy are on board).
In the Rust Belt Focus scenario(They pick Shapiro or Walz and make Pennsylvania the biggest focus as it’s the most important state, and manage to finish ahead in all 3, at the cost of Arizona, Nevada, and the Southern States), the final score is 268-270. A win, but a damn tight one.
Except…Nebraska. Nebraska is putting a law up in September to change the way their state distributes to be Winner Take All. If it goes through it would be passed in October, taking away one D vote from Omaha and giving it to R. (Maine has threatened to do the same if Nebraska does, but they wouldn’t have it done til after the election if they did, not enough time). That would change the above scenario to a 269-269 decided by the current House…which is Trump run and even if it wasn’t it’s state by state and more than 26 states are safe red even in a blue wave scenario. Though it would leave the VP pick to the Senate, which is democrat right now, and while it couldn’t be Harris due to her current spot anyone else would be came. So there’d be a very real chance of a Trump/Shapiro ticket which would be a dysfunctional nightmare and would have a massive chance of one of the two getting murdered.(I can’t find a source if it’s the current senate or the newly elected one as they get inaugurated seperately from the president, but if the senate falls which looks likely the Republicans can pick the VP, and while the House is leaning democrat due to it being state by state it would be R regardless).
This ALSO happens in the reverse scenario, where the Dems focus on the Southwestern States with Mark Kelly(taking Arizona and Nevada) AND manage to put on enough pressure to take Wisconsin and Michigan(which are the closest and Kelly while he isn’t a winning deal there is still better than nothing), but are unable to win Pennsylvania(which is a lot more red leaning and without Shapiro or Walz is probably going red). 270 - 268 win for Democrats…unless Nebraska changes the law in which case it’s a tie, House picks, see above.
The specific configuration of which states go where makes a tie super likely this year especially if Nebraska switches their rules(which isn’t unconstitutional, they picked a weird unique system and they can unpick it, the other system is used by 48 states that’s all above board. The scummy part is the timing as it would leave Maine without time to change their own system before the election and thus secure an extra R vote without an extra D vote from changing Maine). There are also tie scenarios in the event Nebraska doesn’t change, namely the “Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia go blue, everything else goes Red” possibility if someone like Beshear or Cooper is picked ends in a 269-269 tie, as does a couple of scenarios where Maine-State swings Red(which it has come extremely close to more than once), turning narrow Blue wins into ties. And if those scenarios happened alongisde a Nebraska change they’d suddenly be 270-268 clean wins.
worst fucking timeline
Fuck the republican traitor filth.
No, no, don’t fuck any of them.
What about grandma’s dolphin print couch?
JD? Is that you?
Polls don’t mean anything if people don’t go out and vote, and tbh I don’t think Harris is leading in battle ground states enough to really say there might be a “blue wave”.
Dems and allies may be in for a shock if they think Harris is a confirmed winner, from what I can tell it’s close and may remain close. Literally every vote may count https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/25/trump-harris-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-most-key-battlegrounds-but-outperforms-biden/
Pretty sure after 2016 nobody is assuming anything. Especially not when Harris is still behind Trump by 2 points. It would be insane to say “we’re behind 2 points but that’s within the margin of error, so good enough!”
As a Non-American, the fact its a close race a fucking bonkers. You guys need to get your shit together.
It’s so hard, I live in a non-swing state that is very heavily republican. I have conversations with these people daily. They all want the same things as me, have families, great values, and are genuinely great people. But as soon as politics comes up they shut down. It’s only republican or nothing else. I don’t know if what a candidate in states like mine believe matters anymore. It’s just what they have always voted and always will vote. Politics just lives almost in a different universe for these people. It’s so far removed sometimes it feels like a fantasy that doesn’t really change your daily life. There is just no way to have a productive conversation anymore. Terrible and makes me sad because I think if they really understood, they would switch their vote because they often are hurting themselves.
There is no shame anymore. Or maybe there is too much shame, and people repress thinking about it because it’s too painful.
We live in a democracy. We have a representative from of government. These elected officials represent us, they reflect our values. Yes, even if we did not vote for them. Your neighbors are not aliens or NPCs. They are your community.
I cannot contenence choosing to not vote and pretending you are not a part of it all. Long ago I came to terms that many of my neighbors wish I did not exist. I’m trans, and they wish I would stay inside a closet, a basement, or a grave. I take comfort that many others recognize my humanity and celebrate my achievements.
Our government reflects our values. If you don’t like that, then work to change it. Tea partiers did, and they shifted an entire party towards racism and authoritarianism. Maga fans a Qultists worked to make the country reflect their values and now Vannce has a chance to turn the white house into the Handmaid’s Tale.
If that happens then it’s our fault. I can’t pretend that people are not my neighbors just because they think I’m a groomer or a predator no matter how wrong they are. Neither can anyone else pretend that the electorate is not voting for dictatorship.
Hopefully I didn’t come across as advocating for not voting. I was just expressing my disappointment in how good people are unwilling to have hard conversations where opinions flow and change. 100% we need to vote and be the change we want to see. I just fear the changes will be slower than we want. The first step is keep tyrants away from the office then move forward.
Evangelicals sometimes believe that god picks Republican presidents and Satan will let Democrats win. There are others that believe in Dominionist Christianity feeling that those blessed by godjesus will be wealthy and given a position of power as gods will. We have some sad, crazy mf’ers in this country along with some really dumb, gullible people.
As a Non-American, the fact its a close race a fucking bonkers.
As an American the fact that it’s a close race is fucking bonkers. I thought it was bonkers even when the alternative was Biden.
If the election were by popular vote, as it should be, this wouldn’t be an issue at all and Trump would have lost the first time. Our shitty system gives the hateful assholes far more representation than they should have.
So true. The radical extremist qons and/or people that live in less important areas have far more influence than they should have. If anything, people that live in places with more people should have more influence, not less.
You’re right that he would’ve lost the first time, but it still would’ve been way closer to winning than is healthy. In a sane world, 20% of the popular vote for a racist, sexist, rapist, conman thief would’ve been concerning.
Even the popular vote gets fucked up thanks to the electoral college though. Blue voters in red states have little incentive to show up to the polls because of the EC.
Without it those voters would have more turn out.
I’m sure that’s true
As another Non-American I support this statement.
What the fuck? You think we want it this close?
I mean yes? Obviously not you but around half the people that vote somehow prefer Trump and Project 2025. And the people that don’t vote don’t care enough about it to get out of their homes and vote to keep democracy.
So yes, about 2/3 of your country seem to be ok with that scenario. Though I believe that you and many people like you don’t.
They’re a goddamn cult, man. We don’t even view them as American, just to be clear. They’re terrorists that want fascism. The level of hatred we have for trump is bad enough that we are praising the attempted assassination.
It is important to note that we don’t hate trump because he’s a Republican we hate him because of the horrible illegal immoral things he’s done to our country.
This is not about disagreements. Trump is a threat to America. That is not rhetoric. There is proof.
Yeah, you’re right. I probably should’ve specified that for the outsiders.
So many things working against normal Americans to rig things in favor of the crazies.
A third of americans actively avoid politics because its “too political” (too toxic)
I fully acknowledge I’m being optimistic about the blue wave, but I also believe and hope that the momentum is just starting to build and will reflect down ballot.
And yes, I will be voting and be sure to get everyone I know to vote as well.
We need Harris for President cat toys merch already since my two cats also are supporting Harris for president <3
Just remember this picture everyone, no matter how good it looks right now. And YOU probably don’t need to see this, but maybe you have friends who do. I have a few who will be getting this in a text message in October.
The majority of the do not vote block is voter suppression. If you dont experience that in your own life you aren’t the group being suppressed.
This is why voting reform is the most important issue of our times.
None of this fluff matters. Vote like fascism is knocking on the doors of the oval office.
I don’t want to do fascism. I’m going to vote like fascism is right here, because it is.
Also, predictive polls have been really terrible since 2016. They don’t have a good read on the electorate, mainly because they don’t understand the younger generations or know how to quantify social media influence.
So I agree. Vote like our collective future depends on it. And remember that there’s a lot of downballot races that deserve attention, too.
Listening generates enthusiasm.
Also, I love how when Trump’s lead over Biden was broadening, the narrative here was “Biden isn’t losing! The polls are wrong!” Now that Harris’ numbers are rising, it’s “Harris can’t win! The polls are wrong!”
Do not forget that Hillary was beating Trump in most polls before the 2016 election.
Never forget.
I woke up early this morning, so I’m a bit irritated as a baseline, but how the fuck is that even a close race?
It’s a rhetorical question, but damn is it mind blowing how dumb people can be.
The US is fucked up and is influencing us here, and I am fucking pissed.
It’s worth keeping in mind that:
A) The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 5th
and
B) Before that, the only people that you can poll are people who are fired up enough about their candidate to agree to participate.
A resigned, grudging, or “meh” vote for Biden would count just as much as a red hat wearing, sign displaying, rally attending Trump vote…but only one of those two cares enough about polling to participate in one before election day.
With Harris, I’m not so sure she will get that many more votes than Biden would have…but more of those voters are of the more motivated kind who will voluntarily participate in these polls.
It might just be my local area but democrats here dont answer random polls. They are treated as door to door salesman or phone scams, completely ignored.
They sometimes use ridiculous data thats completely wrong too. Ive had them text or leave a voicemail referring to me as: my wife, my mother in law, my father, my mother, as well as the past three families that lived at my address.
I just dont know what type of poll I would actually take, trust isnt given to strangers in these parts generally.
(An old sign a friend of mine had)
No Soliciting
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We are too poor to buy anything.
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Yes, we know who we are voting for.
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Yes, we have found jesus.
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Unless you are selling Thin Mints, please go away.
-
It shouldn’t even be a close race in the poll between Biden and Trump, much less between Harris and Trump.
I was watching Luke Beasley interviewing MAGA people at rallies, and the mental gymnastics is unbelievable. Like even if he can cherry pick who is shown on camera, people have the gall the deny the reality.
I’m extra mad that MAGA thinking is slowly making its way in Canada and our dumb people gobble that shit up.
Oh no!
Anyway…
The ear 👂 tampon made him look weak and reminded everyone that he lies about everything.
Magically, zero damage to a “shot” ear 2 weeks later. Sure, Trump 😆🤣🤡
He was shot with an AR-15 (assuming it was the bullet and not shrapnel).
Those make an entry wound smaller than a hole punch (5.56mm vs. 7.9mm). I mean, a 5.56 is 3/1000ths of an inch smaller than a .22. (Close enough for you guns nerds.) Point being, for those that don’t know, the bullet is tiny, it’s the speed that counts.
So no, I wouldn’t expect to see much after a couple of weeks of healing and careful cleaning. But that pic where the only red spot is so high and close? Either the bullet was extraordinarily close, or he got hit with shrapnel.
You have no clue what you’re talking about. An AR round will put a clean hole through steel, buddy.
You’ll never ever see it put a clean hole thru flesh.
Stop lying.
Wanna walk that back if I provide video evidence?
That explains why Trump had his doctor release an open letter saying he had a 2cm hole blown in his ear
Everything above your earlobe is made of cartilage, and that takes a significantly longer time period to heal compared to flesh. Just ask anyone who’s had their lobe pierced vs a tragus or helix which one healed faster.
Also, assuming anything you said about the ballistics of a .556 round are true, it’s irrelevant because the AP has photos of his ear and there’s no puncture wounds, hole-punch sized or other. If he was hit by the bullet and not just shrapnel, it was a grazing shot and (for my money, seeing as how he’s an old obese man) it’s likely he’s on warfarin or some other blood-thinner/anti-coagulant which made his wound bleed more than it otherwise would have.
Are there pics of him with the bandage off?
Yeah, an AP picture was posted to twitter and then the photographer was banned lol.
Go for overwhelming victory. Win with your vote and hit the streets to celebrate and show support. Make the inevitable attack against the election results sound ridiculous.
Then they’ll say that such an overwhelming victory shouldn’t have been possible and not legitimate.
Anyway, I still say we blow 'em out at the polls.
Ignore anything said by people who talk about ending elections forever.
A week that occurred during the period where the GOP should have been experiencing their post-convention bump. The Democrats haven’t had their convention yet, so that should give them another few points.
its almost like nobody wanted a genocidal chosen by party bureaucrats.
Thank you for revealing that you’re a troll so I can block you.
As if the only lives that matter are Palestinians.
Go 🌻🌻🌻
Yawn. Get better material.
Oh can you shut up about that strawman now at least.
Or be as vehement against Trump now, right? Right?
you guys “fixed” it. why are you still so sensitive about it.
Yeah, and you’re the hero that’s fixing things by endlessly whining on the internet about things you don’t understand.
pointing out the obvious isn’t worth getting this mad over.
biden had a bad image for obvious reasons, among his own voters.
