I still don’t understand how a falling population leads to a society crumbling.
The only thing a reduction in population does is make domestic labor more expensive. If that increase in expense outpaces the product of your society, that’s not on the population, that’s on the sustainability of the society.
And that’s only the capitalist way of looking at it.
It’s not emmigration. If it was then what you said about labor prices is correct.
It’s about too many old people who will die in the next decade and the lack of new babies to keep Japanese culture going
In a world where you can automate everything it’s not an issue.
We can’t, so we need specialized labor to accomplish some tasks and not everyone has the potential to become specialized labor even if they’re given the chance.
With people retiring and less people to take their place it becomes an issue, no matter how much you pay people, if there’s no one to take a position then the seat stays empty.
If population is decreasing because of decreased birthrate, then the population is aging. And all else equal, an aging population is less productive because fewer people are working.
And that’s a problem, how, exactly?
It means things change, because that’s what humans do. We adapt. There are still 750k children born in Japan in 2024, vs 1.6m that died.
To me, it sounds like the obvious solution is to make life better for the young. That doesn’t have to come at the cost of the old, but that’s what the wealthiest will choose.
Less productive means less things for you.
Suppose you ate 100 bananas this year. Suppose you were told that next year you are only allowed 90 bananas, and what’s more you will never have 100 bananas a year again. Even worse, after next year you will never have 90 bananas again. And the same is true of everything else you enjoy.
Most people hope, at a minimum, that next year will be no worse than this year. They do not like knowing, for certain, that every year will be worse than the one before. Forever. But that’s what happens when productivity inexorably declines.
In fact, in this situation the only way to make things better, for anyone, is at someone else’s expense. There is no such thing as a win-win outcome. That makes for a very unpleasant society and it’s easy to see why leaders want to avoid this.
I agree with you 100%. Capitalists need to complete the logic loop: we’ve built amazing tech, machinery and processes to get incredible productivity gains and production of goods with less labor. So we should be able to get by with less labor, right?…
So we should be able to get by with less labor, right?…
Sure. Or everyone could get more stuff for the same amount of labor.
Suppose your boss told you, “You’ve been doing a great job at work. We could give you 10% raise, or we could keep your paycheck the same and cut your hours by 10%.” I don’t know which you would choose, but most people would take the raise.
Yes this is what I meant. So when we can “get more stuff for less labor” we should be fine with a lower population, right? We only need one farmer now per hectare, not 10. We only need ten workers to build a car now, not 100, and so on.
Technology is only one part of the equation. If a factory upgrades its machines but loses half its workforce, it could end up producing less than before.
In Japan, technology improvements are not enough to make up for an aging population. So either workers put in even longer hours or the country has to make do with less stuff than before. And workers are approaching their limits.
Supporting the older, non-working, population is expensive. You need enough workers paying in to those systems that support them.
Sure, but that still sounds like a self-correcting problem.
That scheme sounds familiar. If you drew a diagram to represent the repayment of investments, does it resemble a geometric shape?
Cultural norms around marriage and work-life balance are strangling Japan’s future. Good article, minus one for not exploring innovative or radical solutions to the crisis.
🐱🐱🐱🐱
What if the population is stabilizing? Unlimited growth is death. Anyone who thinks differently hasn’t looked at how life works. That a population that undergoes a huge increase crashes due to starvation and disease. This is observable from bacteria to humans. It could be Japan is entering a stable period where needs and resources are predictable and known. Sounds like a higher standard of living to me. The downside is the huge geriatric population will need more and more resources until that situation becomes part of the new stable norm.
Stagnant is how a capitalist mindset sees it. They can’t stand that since their scam depends on unlimited growth. So of course any take on this from the stand point of greed would think its a terrible thing for a population to shrink to fit its resources not keep growing to allow ever increasing profits.
They seem to be electing a lot of nationalist anti-immigration cucks. Maybe they should try to fix the problem instead of endlessly complaining about it.
Try “to function as a society” when the biosphere becomes unlivable. The biggest and root cause of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change is human overpopulation:
- https://phys.org/news/2023-04-population-growth-main-driver-carbon.html
- https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2017/07/co2_saved/giv-3902H9Q7lx2HE5M7/
The fact that the biggest and root cause of a mass extinction event is being reduced, is a good thing.
Only morons think we’re overpopulated.
I believe Japan has less inequality than the US. Not sure on that, but I think it’s true. I think in this case we see work culture playing a role. The only country in the world with a worse work culture than the US is Japan. No one has time to even think about having kids when you are a company man there. It’s similar in the US.
It really is. In the US I mean. I work 6 days a week 9 am till whenever the fuck I’m done. Sometimes at 1pm and some nights I’m not home by 7pm.
Luckily I’ve negotiated less work orders on Saturday later in the morning so I have some kind of decline of work towards the end of the week. It took six years of constant work to get even that. Otherwise it’s 7 work orders a day and I drive around 150 miles a day. (I work in household appliance repair. So I travel from home to home.)
It’s a thankless job I get micromanaged in. The only advantage I have is that appliance repair techs are always in high demand because there’s so few of us and I’m good at my job so my boss can’t really fire me.
The only country in the world with a worse work culture than the US is Japan.
China too.
…and most other countries that aren’t in Europe.
Nah, China is especially bad, they have 9-6-6 after all.
I’m not disagreeing, just saying China isn’t the only country with worse working conditions than the US. From a global perspective things are actually pretty good in the US.
The only country in the world with a worse work culture than the US is Japan
What about North Korea?
Not really relevant. I mean technically there are countries with child slavery so I guess if you want to entirely miss the point on purpose you could go with one of those.
Even as economist talk about the Lost Decade (really, two decades) in Japan, the unemployment rate has always been relatively subdued compared to the US:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUN25TTJPA156N
From about 1.7% in 1990, and then two spikes that just about reach 5.0% in 2002 and 2009. Not only that, but that’s the range for people 25-54 years old, which isn’t equivalent to the headline number typical in the US. There is an equivalent in published US data, and you can see it’s much higher and spikier than Japan:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000060
This doesn’t mean everything is OK for the working class in Japan. Housing prices are astronomical, requiring 100 year multi-generational loans. Working culture is also far more stressful. However, I think it’s fair to ask who the “Lost (two) Decades” is really affecting.
requiring 100 year multi-generational loans
This is the first I’ve heard of this and the fact that it’s real is insane to me.
I guess it works pretty differently to our system where you borrow x money at y interest rate then? Because otherwise a slight interest rate change has a huge impact, or paying slightly more back would reduce the time to pay it by decades.
Because it’s BS. It’s glaringly fake and calls into question the rest of the claims of the post.
Housing prices aren’t even insane, especially outside of Tokyo. And the property prices don’t even go up. AND you can get 35 year housing loans at under 1% interest. The main reason housing prices have gone up at all is that construction materials cost have gone up due to inflation, Ukraine war, covid supply and demand issues.
This is why we need to do something now. Japan has been unable to offer enough of the right incentives to turn their birthrate around so how do we do any better? Act now. They waited until they had a problem before trying to turn it around and it hasn’t worked. Social and economic inertia is very difficult to turn but maybe if we start now, we can have different results. Japan never had much immigration to fall back on but we can use that to buy more time. We have a chance as long as we keep encouraging and welcoming immigration…… shit
I’d be more interested in altering the material conditions that lead to low birth rates than relying on churning through the global population. We’re already doing immigration like you said and have been. It still sucks to live in these conditions.
Management issues… I know what can help… Introduce Agile.
Give them some days off.
Japanese workers get more days off than American workers.
Japan 26
USA 10
Japanese on average don’t work longer than Americans (2017)
#39 United States 1,765.00
#43 Japan 1,738.36
Don’t get me wrong, they have a crazy work culture, but it’s worse in the USA.
This problem is not isolated to Japan. Countries all across the world are facing the same issue and have been for a number of years.
Create a shitty, miserable, society with no rights or support, and people do not want to bring children into it… who’d guess?
The flannel has been wrung dry to the detriment of the working class; there is no where to go, no more water to squeeze from them. This is global society / capitalism falling apart.
Capitalism is the best we’ve got. Even North Korea has acknowledged this. With other systems people starve en masse. My hope is that we get over the taboo of regulation. Capitalism fucks up real-estate and wealth distribution. And health-care should 100% be government funded.
It seems like you already understand some of the limitations of capitalism. Look into why regulation has gradually been rolled back in the US since the 70s. Why did politicians start to agree with corporate execs demands for lower regulation. Keywords to look up - regulatory capture.
On a separate point, there’s plenty of famines that have occurred in capitalist economies due to capitalist exploitation - that is make more money, at the cost of of creating a famine. Some estimates put the deaths due to famines under capitalism higher than those under socialism. I used to simply know only of the famines under socialism and not know of the famines under capitalism.
Finally the capitalism we live in since the Great Depression is significantly different than the capitalism before it. Socialists, actual Marxists in western counties, yes the US included, were actively involved in the policies that created the welfare states across the west along with the regulatory regime. Some of FDR’s economic advisors were Marxian economists.
That was the compromise to save capitalism from imminent worker revolution. The unregulated, no-safety-net version of the system had lead to the conditions for such revolution. The socialist policies that averted the revolution in have slowly been dismantled over time and the system is reverting to the pre-Great Depression state. Faster in some countries than others.
If you want to reform capitalism to the point where it can no longer revert to economic liberalism (free market fundamentalism), you’d have to almost completely eliminate wealth accumulation. You could only do that by changing the ownership of the means of production. E.g. all employees in all corporations become equal owners (or controllers) of the machines and therefore the decisions on sharing the wealth those machines produce, instead of those decisions being made by a tiny number of major shareholders. You’d also have to significantly expand the industries operated by the government. At that point you end up with socialism. And yes socialism doesn’t mean central planning and no markets. Capitalism doesn’t mean no central planning and just markets. We do plenty of central planning in capitalist economies across governments and large corporations.
I’m not asking you to change your mind today. Just pointing out a few things to look into in case you haven’t.
Seems super likely that capitalism is going to be a major factor in our extinction. Maybe we could have a bit less of it and actually survive as a species
The major shareholders have voted down your proposal.
I actually agree with this. Capitalism presumes infinite resources.
Countries all across the world
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate
Isn’t it interesting that the more “developed” countries have the lowest birth rates.
It’s what follows education. It’s the largely uneducated areas of the world that still raw dog like there’s no tomorrow.
So apparently under Sharia law, Muslim men can have anal sex with a girl under 8, and vaginal with a girl over 8.
And Muslims can openly lie about what is and isn’t true under Sharia law???
No, Muslims cannot openly lie about what is and isn’t true under sharia law. Islamic jurisprudence is a thing. It’s pretty important to Muslims to know what they can or can’t do.
There are different traditions (remember - there are Sunnis and Shias as the largest groups, some more obscure splinters, and splinters off of Sunni and Shia). Not everyone accepts the same Hadith, and there are, ya know, like more than thirteen centuries of interpretations and various schools. (Like, people get Islamic law degrees - that’s kinda why the medieval Muslim world was pretty well known for education, you needed the madrassas to be teaching people this stuff)
I have never heard the idea that anal sex was permissible in Islam. The Hadith cited in my link I think are direct enough that basically all traditions would accept them outright.
I don’t understand the 8 years old distinction bit (maybe something to do with the heinous child rape involved in bacha bazi - but that would not be considered permissible by Islamic scholars)
Solid racism. People aren’t raw dogging because they didn’t learn how sex works in school. Even if your correlation is “accurate” (according to imperial definitions/measurements of “education”), that’s not causation.
People also tend to have more kids when the life expectancy of their kids if very low. Colonized people have low life expectancy because their labor and resources are exploited by the privileged.
Pointing out an objective fact isn’t racism, it just is.
My understanding is that lower fertility follows higher female education for several reasons, including that women in school - and with access to birth control - prefer to wait until finishing school and starting a career before having children. Countries where women have fewer educational and fewer career opportunities, people often start having babies sooner, and more babies overall.
Another oft-mentioned factor is social safety nets such as social security (as much as that can count as a safety net). Areas with no or weak elder support outside of the family tend to have bigger families. Shockingly, this was also the case in the “developed” world back before they developed. Ask older adults in the USA how many brothers and sisters their grandparents had and it is probably a lot more than the next generation had, and the next, etc.
Do colonized people have lower life expectancy or do their children? Or both? Certainly, exploited people may also be living in (and unable to escape from) a society with poor elder care and insufficient safety nets such as social security or other retirement options. Which, of course, makes having lots of kids a totally rational decision. And also limits the ability of many women to participate in the economy outside of the home, which can also slow the development of the country / area’s economy.
This is just fucking dumb
Even if they did want children, without the support systems, it may not be feasible for them to have kids. Having them might mean choosing to starve or go without a house.
Even if you’re in a country with a public health care system, a sick/young child means having to take time off work to care for them.
Exactly its not some mysterious problem no matter how much the government and media try to frame it as one, people of the age to have kids have no time for kids and no money for kids so no wonder they have no desire for kids.
Oh no, not our out of control population growth fueled by resources running out as I type this comment and causing unspeakable damage to the biosphere of the planet.
Whatever will we do if our numbers fall below 7 billion.
I don’t disagree, but the systems necessary to make this happen non-destructively just do not exist.
BTW, you may like the limits to growth study. https://archive.org/details/TheLimitsToGrowth
Although it is kind of a downer. In the 70s, they predicted the downfall of society. We’re on track with the prediction, more or less.
If the Japanese want people to work 80 hour weeks (and go drinking with their boss every night) maybe they should make polyamorous marriage a thing. Kids are a lot easier to deal with if you have help.
From what i heard from people and read online, i really don’t understand how people even do that. Japanese work etiquette is bananas. But that aside, my job is somewhat high demand, but i draw the line at work hours. I work 42 hours a week and not a second longer. That opens up enough times for some hobbies, enough free time and everything. But if i had kids, most of that would be gone. So if you’re a work horse, you’re expected to give up everything, except work and raising kids.
Literally: they don’t go home, that’s how
Hearing about salary men sleeping on the streets or in train stations is one thing, but when I actually finally saw them in person it broke my fucking brain
Imagine the homelessness issues of a major Californian city but instead of homeless people it’s a bunch of clearly drunk dudes in suits who all vanish by morning
My wife cried hard because the realization hit that hard
Yeah. Only rich people should have exclusive access to women.
You seem sarcastic, but biologically speaking, the children of rich parents are much more likely to be born rich themselves. Isn’t that a direction we want to evolve into for humanity, given that being born poor has so many negative outcomes?
biologically speaking, the children of rich parents are much more likely to be born rich themselves
Bro, what? Biologically speaking? What are you talking about?
The kids of rich people are rich because their parents are rich. They grow up to be rich because they have their parents wealth, which they either use to create more, or just stay rich.
The fact that they’re rich has nothing to do with their “biology”.What are you proposing anyway? That only rich people procreate and then somehow eventually everyone will be rich? If you can do simple math like addition and subtraction, you’ll realize that that scenario is not possible.
Plus wealth generally means power and connections, all of which makes it easier for someone to get wealthy.
Microsoft would almost certainly have never become what it is if Bill Microsoft wasn’t wealthy enough to have a family computer ahead of most people being able to have one at home, and his mother wasn’t friends with an IBM chair.
Naturally, IBM would be much more likely to hire someone who comes with the recommendation of a higher-up than Afferige Mann, who is applying based on an ad in the paper, and has only worked retail.
Plus wealth gives a safety net. It didn’t matter for Bill if the first few Microsofts failed, he can try again until he hits it big. Afferige has non-such luck. If he starts a company and it folds, he may not have the money to start another.
If we can all be rich, then sure.
Otherwise it’s just a tool to breed average people out of the gene pool. The end result are rulers and servants. Guess which one your kids will be.
Keep in mind, the only reason why some people don’t have enough is because others have too much.
I think we all largely get what you’re speaking to but I feel compelled to highlight that you can’t breed average people out. “Rulers” and “servants” are social classes, and not “in the gene pool.”
The message got a little muddled there.
that you can’t breed average people out.
Actually, you can. I’m referring to the middle class and their increasing difficulty in raising a family. A significant amount of them are choosing not to, which literally means they don’t get to carry on their lineage.
I’m not going to get into the whys, but very poor people do not have the issue with reproducing that the middle class has.
There is no “middle class”. There’s labor and capital. You’re either serving or getting served. I know very well where I’m at. :/
Duckduckgo “myth middle class” and take your poison of choice.
That’s not entirely true.
People in the middle class have disposable income that lower class people do not. Many of them have enough wealth to live comfortably for the rest of their lives without ever having to work again.
me and my ex already both tested poor before we had our first baby, so we went ahead with the abortion because the dotor determined he was going to be born poor anway
That’s a form of eugenics. More specifically, it would be classed as “positive social eugenics”.
Clarification
The use of the term “positive” does not mean it is a “good” thing. It just means that individuals with percieved “desirable” traits are encouraged to mate more than the “undesirables”. Conversely, an example of negative eugenics would be murdering/sterilizing the “undesirables”.
“Social eugenics” simply means that the “desirable” trait is not genetic, but rather a social construct, in this case wealth.
Huge amount of japanese descent people in Brazil (including me), but I have the feeling the japanese would rather have their country implode than give us nationality
Inflation, daycare, and work-life balance are the complaints I hear most. A ton of the jobs and good education are in Tokyo so people want to be there. This overloads all the daycare and other systems. Since corona, the floodgates have opened on price increases and inflation. Since 3/11 energy costs have been rising and things with Russia also hit (after nuclear, tons of fuel is needed and is imported, often from Russia).
Having more things in other parts of the country that still paid well would help. Where I live (in Tohoku) daycare slots are plentiful and there are all kinds of subsidies for kids. The only jobs here, though, are fishery, forestry, agriculture, etc. My town is less bad because a lot was rebuilt after the tsunami, but the lack of people also means a lack of tax which also means infrastructure suffers. Rust and crumbling things everywhere.
Is an element of this to do with sexism too? I haven’t seen it mentioned but my understanding is women aren’t treated well, particularly in the workplace, leading to wanting to stay single and childfree for a better life.
The olds expect women to quit basically when they marry or get pregnant. Worker protections are better these days, but the view is still there with some. Some couples do have to have one spouse quit because of the whole daycare thing in some areas, though.
There is a wage gap between men and women and fewer women are in positions of power, though the latter at least is slowly getting better.
Not having a child won’t cancel societal expectations of the older generations. Women are often still expected to serve tea and do other things in older/traditional companies.
My company is a westernized Japanese company and we do have a number of women including in higher roles (though none on the board, I think). I’m in a remote IT role so I don’t generally hang out after work with non-IT staff to hear real opinions or the rumor mill, though.
My wife was treated well and fairly by her small japanese company, but she has experienced some discrimination previously.
In our village, we do have work we do in the community every month or two (mostly cutting grass, litter picking, and maintaining shared spaces). Some things are definitely typically done by the men or women with women doing the inside cleaning and cooking at events with men doing the outside work. We’ve already broken that mold some as I’m also the cook (I baked things to bring to our last event).
I hear that welcoming migrants is a great way to address this problem…
incoherent Japanese screeching
this story comes out every so often about japan, rarely if ever mentions (slightly) lower births per woman in italy, china, spain, or the same 1.3 as e.g. poland, finland, canada
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?most_recent_value_desc=false
those are 2022 figures but i doubt there’s been significant change
there’s basically no first world country above the 2.1 replacement rate
I’d say all those EU (and Canada) countries aren’t striving to be the economic powerhouse that Japan is and China already has 1.5 billion people compared to Japan’s 125 million. Plus most countries rely on immigration to make up the difference while I’ve heard (but maybe not true) that Japan is hard to immigrate to due to the disapproving culture toward foreigners.
They actually have quite a bunch of programmes to bring foreigners in. That’s not to say that the cultural issues aren’t there but that’s a separate problem regarding integration rather than immigration.
Sure, but they often aren’t terribly appealing, outside of those that target highly qualified professionals. Japan also needs manpower to make up for shortages in areas like their agricultural and fishing industries, and the terms just kind of suck. Like, I could qualify right now to move there based on my work experience in seafood, but it would be on a 5 year, non-renewable visa, which doesn’t count at all towards establishing permanent residency and doesn’t allow me to bring my family with me.
Those sorts of programs really only appeal to people from nearby developing nations that want to go to Japan for a few years, send a ton of money back home, and then go back to live in Malaysia or the Philippines once they finish building their new house, or paying for their kid to attend a good school, or whatever. It doesn’t do much more than kick the problems of a shrinking tax base and labor pool down the line a bit, nor does it really encourage those participating in such schemes to make serious efforts at integration with the local culture.
Sooner or later, Japan needs to implement a proper immigration reform to offset low domestic birth rates, or they’ll have an elderly population that can’t fund the government and public services, because they aren’t working and the younger generation is too small to carry the load all on their own, and they also won’t have the people to care for them and provide them goods and services in their old age.
In comparison, Italy and Spain have roughly 4x the immigrant population of Japan, and Canada’s number of immigrants is nearly 10x as large.
The weird thing is that once you get a foot in the door, Japanese immigration policies actually aren’t that strict. You just need a guarantor (company) to be willing to hire you.
The language barrier and hesitancy of companies to hire non-Japanese is the actual barrier, not so much the immigration policies themselves. The government could ofcourse encourage companies to hire foreigners…but Japan changes at a glacial pace.
I’m sure they’ll be ready to deal with the new world under trump by 2035-40
fair enough. i picked those out as sort of ‘mainstream’ countries that this kind of article doesn’t get published about, while i’ve seen them about japan a few times now. be interesting to contrast immigration rates to countries with similarly difficult language and cultural barriers but that’s a bigger job i haven’t the time for now
to this article’s credit it does end with a couple of paragraphs on the korean government attempts to support “work-family balance, childcare and housing”
Europe has strong immigration policies and can easily correct if needed. Italy is already outsourcing most of elderly care to other Europeans - who’s caring for Japan’s elderly?
Most likely themselves…
