From what I’m reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, … Are any shortages noticeable yet?
ETA:
Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus
Businesses have been filling their inventories. That’s ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn’t prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.
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There will be no drama, as it happened with eggs some weeks ago. I don’t mean it will not be a problem for someone, but media will inflate how people will be affected or not be affected
There will be no drama, as it happened with eggs some weeks ago.
The question is, is this just confident distancing from the overhype and fear-mongering, or is this a head-in-the-sand approach to a severe calamity? Can we know before it actually hits?
Would you rather over-plan for it, or under-plan?
Distancing but no head-in-the-sand: again, there will be problems and if I could change some investment or stock something to help me in the near future, I’d do, but I think it will have marginal impact on me. The most impacted will be people not having the chance to plan anything, and their problems will reflect to anyone else
Dude any good fuckup to the system like Suez Canal or… say, Panama
We saw all this happen just after covid. We saw what market collapse can do in '08. Drama will come.
How you figure? Trump will just fold?
I think shortages will be short-lived as companies and retailers just have to suck it up and pay more. People won’t be able to buy as much stuff, so layoffs and a recession or depression are likely, but there’s not much I can think of doing to prepare for that.
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Food and housing are the only classes many have left.
the shortages and disruptions have been happening and Trump is not the end all be all of all things just another puppet that was
voted inselected by the elitesbeen an issue worse since covid and not just because of tariffs or what presidential puppet sits in the white house
no preparing for something when we have nothing to start preparing with in the first place
at least in the United States you have lots of people at the bottom, some in the upper middle, and very few elites that control it all
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I think we do have a few things worth preparing for.
For most people, the federal government doesn’t really exist in their lives. They only see it at tax time. The rest of their lives are mandated by local and state government.
The regime has defanged the legislative and judicial branches now. It’s all down to states. Unless a better framework is proposed fast.
I think Bookchin’s theories stood pretty good test in Rojava.
this guy has a wild comment history lol
One of the regular rabble rousers. He gets off on being an idiot.
What on earth did i just read? None of that was even coherent.
On the bright side, it probably wasn’t AI-generated.
That’s a low bar
Neither A nor I, in fact!
Canadian here… I’m preparing by buying puts on SPY
Hehe same
I got a hefty stockpile of food. Probably gonna grab some extras of random consumables in the next couple days. Maybe an extra kilo of 3D printer filament mostly just for fun but also in case I need some random plastic whosywhatsit that can’t be found any more.
Are they gonna blow up some vessels? What doe she negative number mean? XD
The negative number means that far fewer ships are arriving in LA than at the same time last year.
Curling up into the fetal position and crying in between protests.
I have installed a bidet in case toilet paper gets panic bought again
Not shortages yet, but steep price increases.
I have dropped some items from my normal grocery list because of ramping prices. Eggs and avocados were first, but it’s expanding to other things now.
I have some hobby projects I want to do that would require buying new hardware; those prices are going up so that is on hold until further notice.
I work from home 95% of the time and do much of my evening/weekend socializing and hobbies within walking distance of my home, so I could drop my driving and fuel consumption very low.
I bought a $30 renter-friendly bidet kit so I am way less exposed to another toilet paper shortage.
I was going to buy a new car, probably a RAV4 internal hybrid, within the next 1-2 years but that is completely up in the air now. My current car is functional, just old, and I would continue driving it rather than swap to an inferior and dangerous American car like Tesla.
Buy less, budget conscientiously, wait to see what happens. Exactly what Trump doesn’t want but which anyone with half a brain cell knew would happen.
How much are avocados where you are? They’re still $1 each here which is too bad.
They doubled over the last ~week at my grocery store. Typically 88 cents to $1, today $1.99.
Dang.
We’ll see if they stay up or if it was a minor swing due to, I don’t know, short term short supply. I was reading they are an interesting bellweather because of their very short shelf-life and west-to-east shipping path.
They’re one of my favorite lunches while hiking. Good fats. Easy. No refrigeration needed.
OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.
I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.
You seem to be misreading that.
Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.
Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.
My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock
I think the issue is you’re waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.
Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.
Edit: Thanks General I didn’t notice it’s in weeks. So we’re looking at early June which is closer to what we were all thinking.
- The chart shows weeks, not months.
- It shows scheduled arrivals of vessels in LA. It may not be safe to equate that to freight arriving in the US.
Yes, and then, or rather now, incoming shipping collapses.
May still be a few weeks more before it’s critical then.
Cargo container bookings are down 60%. 60%! Thats an incredible drop, and it really hasn’t even started yet.
I’m ready for a “Hot Tariff Summer.”
I’ve been on a no-purchase kick for a while now, even before HitlerPig was elected. We have become such a culture of consumerism that it had started to disgust me. I’ve embraced the “re-use, repair, re-sell, recycle” philosophy. If i need something, i try to buy it used.
I’m a guitarist, so I buy used guitars when i get a good deal, clean them up, fix them, and re-sell them at a small profit. It puts a beautiful instrument back into service, allows a poor or new musician an opportunity to have an inexpensive but quality instrument, and its music makes the world a slightly more beautiful place.
I even went on a much-needed diet (down 80 pounds so far, and still going), and decreasing my consumption, and spending less money with evil corporations, is a primary motivation.
So let the shelves be empty of cheap Chinese-made consumer goods, i don’t need them, despite how much advertising and marketing tells me i do.
The silver lining is that if tariffs become a longterm thing, people will be forced to come around to my way of thinking, and when the tariffs finally end, corporations may be surprised to find that nobody needs their shiny crap any more.
clean them up, fix them,
As someone else that does “clean up” and “fix them” for other non-instrument items, are you concerned about your supply/cost of replacement parts and supplies? Most of mine come from China.
Somewhat, mostly strings. Most of the rest is just adjustments, using tools I already have. I still have a fair stock of strings, but I was thinking of buying a bunch more to hold me over for a while.
Cleaning is also a big part, but that’s easy.
I suppose if it gets bad, and I need to buy tuners and bridges, etc., I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.
I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.
This is a future I see on my side too. The price will likely go up for our services to support this for a supply of parts though. If we get to that point, you won’t be the only one buying up junk guitars as others will be buying them for the same reason. So the price of junk guitars is going to go up too.
I expect used items of all types are going to increase - clothes, appliances, toys, etc. Goodwill and other thrift shops are about to have the biggest boom period of their history.
I’m soupmaxxing
Already have everything I should need for the next few years besides consumables. Considering buying a few buckets of emergency food from Costco. Other than that, bending over and lubing up because I can’t keep a cactus alive, much less crops.
Most of what I grow is for flavour rather than sustenance, pretty limited space. Doubt I will survive for long off garlic, bay leaves and rosemary with a sprinkling of mint.
I was looking at a reolink camera last night.
About $80 on Amazon.
On aliexpress (where the reolink website itself directs you for check out), the same camera is over $200.
Ali vendors were jacking up prices long before the exception removal date and before even some of the tariffs went into effect.
I’m far less worried about the imminent supply shock to the economy and far more worried about the long term damage to things like the FDA. We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume. I do have a solid amount of food in my house, and if shelves start emptying I think I’ll be okay for a bit, but that’ll pass. I can’t really leave this country, so I need to be planning for longer term problems too.
I have this fear that we won’t even be able to trust fruits and vegetables. The most common food contaminations in the news always seem to be unwashed lettuce and such, which makes sense because of fertilizers.
I’ve been preparing for some kind of problem with produce for a few years, I just had a gut feeling so I built a vegetable garden 3 years ago. Also have been planting fruit trees everywhere.
Ive been stockpiling canned proteins like tuna, chicken, clams, oysters, etc. even Spam. They may not be trustworthy in the future, but they are right now, so stack them up.
I can make a cheap but killer soup with a can of chicken, some ramen, and herbs, and i can even grow the herbs myself.
It’s quite crazy to hear that the US is about to force UK and EU to buy more chlorinated chicken, and then hear that US will stop salmonela testing while negotiating this.
We’ve decided we’re going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don’t trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume.
Farmers’ markets (or direct from a local farm/butcher) are probably your best bet for what meat you do buy, if you don’t go full veg
While the nation was functioning, meat and dairy would have been regulated by the USDA, not the FDA.
