From what I’m reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, … Are any shortages noticeable yet?
ETA:
Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus
Businesses have been filling their inventories. That’s ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn’t prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.
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Curling up into the fetal position and crying in between protests.
OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.
I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.
You seem to be misreading that.
Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.
Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.
My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock
Yes, and then, or rather now, incoming shipping collapses.
I think the issue is you’re waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.
Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.
Edit: Thanks General I didn’t notice it’s in weeks. So we’re looking at early June which is closer to what we were all thinking.
- The chart shows weeks, not months.
- It shows scheduled arrivals of vessels in LA. It may not be safe to equate that to freight arriving in the US.
May still be a few weeks more before it’s critical then.
My company layed off the newest hire, and bought $50k of materials we need for R&D for the next year and a half. Im in the process of buying a duplex instead of a single family as a hedge, so my cost of living will be low enough to survive on my wife’s part time salary if we can keep a renter. I will be planting food producing trees and bushes, and building garden boxes after close, and learning canning.
Look for bareroot trees if you want a better deal.
I’m an American citizen self deporting.
Not yet here. Maybe a few more weeks?
I think shortages will be short-lived as companies and retailers just have to suck it up and pay more. People won’t be able to buy as much stuff, so layoffs and a recession or depression are likely, but there’s not much I can think of doing to prepare for that.
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Food and housing are the only classes many have left.
Prepare? I’m poor lol
Learn to cook beans and rice from scratch. Stock up on them in bulk. Emergency food packs can be bought from $45 and up depending on how many you have to feed and for how long you’re planning to need it.
I already know how to cook poverty foods from living off £8k a year back around 2016.
I feel that from personal experiencto. I learned while earning 0 at the time. Fortunately I was living in Seattle which has/had some great food banks and food resources for the destitute.
the shortages and disruptions have been happening and Trump is not the end all be all of all things just another puppet that was
voted inselected by the elitesbeen an issue worse since covid and not just because of tariffs or what presidential puppet sits in the white house
no preparing for something when we have nothing to start preparing with in the first place
at least in the United States you have lots of people at the bottom, some in the upper middle, and very few elites that control it all
this guy has a wild comment history lol
One of the regular rabble rousers. He gets off on being an idiot.
I think we do have a few things worth preparing for.
For most people, the federal government doesn’t really exist in their lives. They only see it at tax time. The rest of their lives are mandated by local and state government.
The regime has defanged the legislative and judicial branches now. It’s all down to states. Unless a better framework is proposed fast.
I think Bookchin’s theories stood pretty good test in Rojava.
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What on earth did i just read? None of that was even coherent.
On the bright side, it probably wasn’t AI-generated.
That’s a low bar
Neither A nor I, in fact!
at the moment not enough to cause panic buying or draw significant media attention. Select goods have begun to creep up in price, and freight industry reports show projected decreases in demand, but not really seeing it yet.
I am really curious about how much media attention the consequences of the Orange Man’s moves will get. Fascism is at work and the first thing fascists do is get control of the media.
I feel awful for the genuinely good people living there. But to all of the people that either voted for this or sat back and did nothing to prevent this: I genuinely, sincerely, from the bottom of my heart hope that you fucking suffer like never before.
I’m waiting to see whether the American resistance (if it can be called that) succeeds, and what they do if they succeed, before I take that position, but fair enough.
Don’t worry the entire world will suffer not just the people you don’t like in the US.
This has certainly been true in the past, but I’m seeing the next few of these will affect the rest of the world less than it did in the past. Other nations are decoupling from USD as a reserve currency so they are a bit more insulated from US economic swings. Further, China will have extra manufacturing capacity since the USA is effectively blocked for many of its goods. This means that China will (likely already is) finding other markets in the world for these goods and others producible from the excess manufacturing capacity. Increased supplied will mean reduced prices everywhere else in the world besides the USA.
Worldwide petroleum prices will likely fall because of reduced demand from the USA. Food prices may be one place prices rise with the reduced production from the ongoing war of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and the voluntary reduction of food imports from the USA in response to USA tariffs on imports. So this will place a strain on non-USA based food producing countries.
I say all of this as an American appalled at what trump is doing to the USA and the world.
Well, the assholes in charge over here dismantled FEMA, a national disaster relief organization. And there are some pretty Republican regions that regularly need its assistance from hurricanes and other weather disasters.
“May you have the day you voted for.”
I was looking at a reolink camera last night.
About $80 on Amazon.
On aliexpress (where the reolink website itself directs you for check out), the same camera is over $200.
Ali vendors were jacking up prices long before the exception removal date and before even some of the tariffs went into effect.
Already have everything I should need for the next few years besides consumables. Considering buying a few buckets of emergency food from Costco. Other than that, bending over and lubing up because I can’t keep a cactus alive, much less crops.
Most of what I grow is for flavour rather than sustenance, pretty limited space. Doubt I will survive for long off garlic, bay leaves and rosemary with a sprinkling of mint.
Been practicing cooking lentils, Bean’s and rice since middle of last year.
I understand what lentils and rice are good for, but what on earth did Ben do to deserve being cooked?
Lol, fixed. Sorry Ben!
Huh. What of Bean’s are you cooking?
Dried black beans in an instant pot. Very cheap, very filling, and versatile. I like them in a chili, or Yucatan style black bean soup
There will be no drama, as it happened with eggs some weeks ago. I don’t mean it will not be a problem for someone, but media will inflate how people will be affected or not be affected
How you figure? Trump will just fold?
There will be no drama, as it happened with eggs some weeks ago.
The question is, is this just confident distancing from the overhype and fear-mongering, or is this a head-in-the-sand approach to a severe calamity? Can we know before it actually hits?
Would you rather over-plan for it, or under-plan?
Distancing but no head-in-the-sand: again, there will be problems and if I could change some investment or stock something to help me in the near future, I’d do, but I think it will have marginal impact on me. The most impacted will be people not having the chance to plan anything, and their problems will reflect to anyone else
Dude any good fuckup to the system like Suez Canal or… say, Panama
We saw all this happen just after covid. We saw what market collapse can do in '08. Drama will come.
People don’t really know what to do, except save money, cut back on disposable spending, and watch carefully. Maybe buy some big things early like a laptop or EV now rather than wait for the shock. The big problems are a few weeks to months away.
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